(Title Image: New Statesman)
Beginning a short series of more in-depth examinations of the performance of the parties in the 2021 Senedd election, I start with the undoubted winners – Labour.
Five more years of Labour, obviously.
The immediate priority, as said, will be the pandemic and the recovery. In terms of legislation, the main priorities will probably be the post-Brexit framework bills on the environment, agriculture and fisheries. I doubt we’ll see any big project announcements (like the Burns Commission proposals for Newport) for at least a year or two or until the financial position is clearer.
Mark Drakeford has dropped hints he would like to secure a controlling majority rather than the majority-in-practice he has at the moment. That doesn’t mean a formal coalition as there’s a history of cross-party working and Plaid Cymru (and the Lib Dems) have been receptive to working with Labour on budget deals.
Mark Drakeford is also set to step down at some point during the Sixth Senedd – probably around the halfway point (2023-24).
One of the questions now might well be, “Does Mark Drakeford even need to step down?” He’s earned the right to stay on for the whole term and fight the next election if he wants to – something that in 2019 looked impossible. Based on his record to date, you’ll expect him to keep his word but we can expect leadership manoeuvres once it’s clear the pandemic is coming to an end.
Suggestions that electoral reform may be on the table are perhaps a little far-fetched. It wasn’t a firm manifesto commitment but “building upon committee recommendations” was mentioned in passing. Moving to STV does have some support on the Labour benches, but I suspect there’ll be other members quite happy to keep the current system. There won’t be any rush. The supermajority for electoral reform is there as long as any future proposals have the backing of Plaid Cymru.
One of the big carrots for electoral reform will be that Labour could potentially (and far more easily) win a majority under STV than the Additional Member System. There’s the chance the electoral system could be changed without an overall increase in the number of members or a more modest increase to something like 70 members to account for the inevitable cut in MPs.
I don’t buy the narrative that because the UK’s nations voted differently to each other it means the UK is about to break up. A “rally to the flag” effect was expected due to the pandemic.
Constitutionally, it’ll be difficult for the SNP to hold a legal referendum despite their own and the Scottish Greens clear mandate (the constitution is a reserved matter), while Welsh Labour are still a Unionist party and can’t deliver their vision of supposed “radical federalism”.
There are examples all over the world of constituent nations and states being politically very different to each other yet still maintaining a union (Australia, Canada, US, Germany). The difference is they’re all federations and autonomy is expected, protected and respected not undermined from the centre as in Spain and the UK.
