(Title Image: New Statesman)
Beginning a short series of more in-depth examinations of the performance of the parties in the 2021 Senedd election, I start with the undoubted winners – Labour.
An unambitious manifesto – Whoever would have won the election – Labour or a Labour-led coalition – would have had to put the pandemic and its recovery front-and-centre for the next 18 months at least. That was a given. The problem Labour has perhaps created for themselves is what happens after that?
Their manifesto was pretty uninspiring. Many of the pledges are already in the process of being delivered; very little of it was new or refreshing. I accept there are good reasons for that – it’s right to not promise the earth when there are so many uncertainties around public finances and the pandemic.
That said, it suggests we’re in for a very boring five years. After the previous five that might not be a bad thing and, to Labour’s advantage, it leaves policy wriggle room for whoever eventually succeeds Mark Drakeford.
“I’m With Stupid”: Troubles in English Labour – Every Labour activist and member in Wales has a right to be angry with how the 2021 results have been reported at UK level and the buffoonery occurring at the top of UK (though it’s firmly English) Labour.
There was always a danger that Labour’s success in Wales (and some of the English mayoral elections) would be used as a fig leaf to spare Keir Starmer’s blushes, but that hasn’t happened. You don’t need any further proof that there’s a Westminster-centric bubble reporting political news at the UK level; it’s been all about Hartlepool, Angela Rayner and Scotland.
Far from Welsh Labour being seen as an embarrassing slow younger sibling of the English branch, it’s the other way around now. Welsh Labour has always acted with a bit of autonomy from the UK party but will have to do even more so in a difficult environment.
Eventually, they’re going to lose their (short-lived) media advantage – With everyone stuck at home, senior Welsh Government ministers were given prime time opportunities to speak directly to the public. It was no surprise that in constituencies where a government minister was standing they massively increased their majorities. People know who Mark Drakeford is himself, but also – to a limited extent – the supporting cast of Ken Skates, Vaughan Gething, Eluned Morgan and Rebecca Evans.
They should enjoy the honeymoon period (though it’s a bit silly to call it that after 22 years in power) for as long as it lasts because as soon as the pandemic properly recedes, the broadcasts will stop. The radio microphones will be packed away at press briefings. The coverage of Welsh politics will go back to normal (i.e. even less than now). Yes, there are new online and print outlets now but it’s going to be far more difficult for the incoming Welsh Government (and Senedd) to get their message out than it was for the previous 18 months. Is there anyone paying attention? Turnout suggests “no”.
