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The UK officially left the European Union on January 31st 2020 following an almost four-year “Brexit” process – Brexit itself being shorthand for “Britain’s Exit (from the European Union)”.
The process began with a referendum held in the UK and Gibraltar on 23rd June 2016. The referendum resulted in 51.9% voting to “Leave” and 48.1% voting to “Remain” in the EU.
A majority of voters in Scotland (62.0%), Northern Ireland (55.8%) and Gibraltar (95.9%) voted to “Remain”. Wales voted “Leave” – in line with most of England – by 52.5% to 47.5%.
TL;DR: The Key Points
- Euroscepticism had been on the increase in the UK since the 1980s over growing concerns about a “Federal Europe”, which was considered a threat to the UK’s independence.
- During the 1990s and 2000s, the UK Conservative party were split over issues like a single European currency and could never resolve it.
- The 2004 expansion of the EU into Eastern Europe increased the number of people from abroad eligible to work and live in the UK. By this point immigration had become a major political issue in the UK.
- UKIP’s success in UK elections during the 2010s – as well as the “No” vote in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum – opened the door for an “In-Out” referendum. Despite the UK Government renegotiating more favourable terms for the UK’s continued EU membership, the electorate voted to Leave in June 2016 prompting an ongoing political crisis that lasted for years.
- A UK-EU free trade deal (Trade & Cooperation Agreement) was signed in December 2020 and needs to be reviewed every 5 years. It has left some lingering issues that continue to cause controversy. One is Northern Ireland’s “backstop”, which was introduced to prevent a hard border with the Republic.
Road to the Referendum
1973 – The UK joins the European Economic Community/”Common Market” alongside Denmark and the Republic of Ireland.
1975 – The UK holds a referendum on continued “common market membership”, which the “Remain” side won by 67% to 33%. Support to remain was stronger in England than in Wales and Scotland, with membership opposed by both the hard left and hard right for different reasons.
1984 – UK Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, negotiates a rebate on the UK’s contribution towards the EEC budget. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was said to benefit other EEC members at British expense.
1988 – Under the leadership of Jacques Delors, the EEC begins a push towards a “Social Europe” with greater social and worker protections. Labour starts to ditch its Euroscepticism in favour of closer economic union with the rest of the EEC, including a single European currency.
1990 – Some senior UK Conservative cabinet members were supportive of a single currency too. The UK takes part in a system that pegged European exchange rates to each other (ERM) ahead of a single currency being introduced. Margaret Thatcher’s opposition to a single currency – seeing it as the first step towards a federal Europe – was one part of a series of events which led to her eventual resignation.
1992 – The Maastricht Treaty is signed, eventually leading to the creation of the euro. Later that year, the UK crashed out of the ERM after a sudden plunge in the pound’s value (Black Wednesday). This secured a UK opt-out of the Maastricht Treaty.
1994-1997 – The Referendum Party campaigns for a referendum on EU membership. They sent a VHS to every home in the UK, though polled just 2.6% of the vote in the 1997 UK General Election which the cosmopolitan, pro-EU “New” Labour won in a landslide.
1999-2003 – The euro was formally introduced in 14 EU member states. Prime Minister Tony Blair proposed that if the euro met five key economic tests, a referendum would be held on the UK joining the euro. UK Chancellor, Gordon Brown, consistently rules it out as the criteria on areas like government deficits were too strict for the UK to meet.
2004 – A rival to the Referendum Party – the UK Independence Party (UKIP) – grows in visibility as the tabloid press continuously mocks “jobsworth” EU regulations (often untrue and dubbed “euromyths”) on things like “straight bananas”. These rules and regulations were portrayed as an attack on traditional British institutions like the imperial system. Nigel Farage takes UKIP in an increasingly populist direction.
2004-2009 – The Lisbon Treaty is signed. The Treaty gives the EU exclusive competence in policy areas like the customs union, competition rules and external free trade. The EU expands into Eastern Europe. The UK Labour government decided not to restrict migration from the new EU states. Many EU migrants settled in eastern and southern England. UKIP increased their number of MEPs in the 2009 European Parliament elections, including one MEP from Wales.
2009-2014 – High debts in some eurozone members, particularly Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain (aka. PIIGS) leads to a sovereign debt crisis and emergency measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) – mostly underwritten by Germany. The euro survives, but the crisis results in serious political turmoil in Greece.
2014 – UKIP tops the polls in the European elections and becomes the largest party representing the UK in the EU Parliament. Two Conservative MPs – Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless – resign and win by-elections to become UKIP’s first MPs.
2015 – The Conservatives win the UK General Election outright, ending five years of a coalition government with the pro-EU Liberal Democrats. Their manifesto included a pledge to hold a referendum on a renegotiated UK EU membership by the end of 2017. UKIP received almost 4 million votes but lost an MP due to the first-past-the-post system. An Act on the EU referendum was passed by the end of 2015 amidst a refugee crisis in Europe fuelled by the Syrian Civil War – to which the EU’s response is widely criticised.
2016 – David Cameron announces a provisional agreement on renegotiated EU membership and sets a date for the EU referendum. The renegotiated membership terms include :
- A British opt-out from “ever closer union”.
- The EU Council will be forced to re-discuss proposed directives/EU laws if more than half of EU member state parliaments reject them.
- Benefits could be suspended for EU migrants if they are placing too great a burden on a member state.
- Protection for the UK’s financial service sector against “favouritism” toward the eurozone.
- Citizens of new EU member states won’t have an automatic right to free movement, with blocks on free movement for people outside the EU if they marry an EU citizen.
Additionally, UKIP win seven seats at the 2016 Senedd election. The renegotiated terms were ultimately rejected by the electorate in favour of leaving the EU altogether.
The Withdrawal Agreement
Road to Brexit
Following the referendum, the UK Government formally announced its intention to leave the EU1 in March 2017.
Throughout the process, there were several sticking points which complicated matters.
The first one being that there was no clear idea of what “type” of Brexit would have majority political support.
Those on the right of the Conservative party preferred to leave the EU either with a very bare-bones free trade agreement, or without a deal at all (a so-called “Hard” or “No Deal” Brexit). They believed that this approach would provide the biggest benefits to the UK.
The second major issue was the Irish border. There are no customs or border checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
However, because the Republic was staying in the EU, it would still be subject to EU trade rules. This meant that the prospect of a “hard border” – with customs and passport checks – was a very real possibility and threatened to void parts of the Good Friday Agreement (which helped end “The Troubles”).
A separate protocol (also called the “backstop”) was agreed specifically concerning Northern Ireland. It meant that Northern Ireland would leave the EU, but would continue to apply certain EU rules to prevent a “hard border” with the Republic. It also means goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland need customs checks – which is opposed by Northern Ireland’s Unionists.
Several failed attempts were made at getting a deal through the UK Parliament and there was a chance that the UK would leave the EU without an agreement. There was also pressure from pro-EU campaigners for a second referendum to be held as a last-ditch attempt to keep the UK either in the EU or the Single Market.
An agreement was eventually finalised:
- No tariffs on goods and agricultural products.
- Customs declarations for goods moving between Great Britain and the EU (including Northern Ireland as part of the “backstop”).
- Standards generally need to be in line with each other.
- The UK will have a greater share of fishing rights within UK territorial waters – though EU fishing boats can access these waters.
- The UK can still take part in certain EU programmes.
- Freedom of movement between the UK and EU ends, though no visas will be required for up to 90 days of travel.
The Future UK-EU Relationship
Under the terms of the UK-EU agreement, it has to be reviewed every five years2, with the first five-year review set to take place in or around May 2026.
It’s unclear at this time what would be on the table in this review.
UK in a Changing Europe3 believes that a “minimalist approach” would mean a simple check of whether the current agreement works. A more “maximalist approach” would result in a near complete re-negotiation of the terms.
On May 19th 2025, the UK and EU agreed a “reset” of relations4. The agreement includes a reduction in food checks, extended access for EU fishing vessels in UK waters for 12 years (which had not been fully agreed with Scotland and Wales, where fisheries are devolved), a new defence agreement, a new youth mobility scheme and allowing UK passport holders to use e-gates at EU airports.
There is no prospect on the horizon of a future referendum on the UK rejoining the EU. Whether an independent Wales would seek to rejoin the EU is a different matter.
- Treaty on European Union (2007), Article 50.
- Trade and Cooperation Agreement (2021), Article 776.
- Prof. Simon Usherwood, Dr. David Maloney (4th July 2023). “What might the review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement actually be like?”
- UK Government, Cabinet Office (19th May 2025). “UK-EU Summit Explainer”
No AI tools were used to draft this post.
