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What Happens Now?
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) is the UK’s statistics body, overseen by the UK Statistics Authority.
The ONS headquarters is in Newport. Although the ONS is responsible for providing or publishing most official statistics, other government and non-government agencies (i.e. HM Treasury) produce official statistics separately.
Each of the devolved governments (Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland) has its own statistics department focusing on devolved public services (NHS, local government).
The Welsh Government’s Knowledge and Analytical Services Department publishes under Statistics for Wales and StatsWales – all working to the same standards set for the ONS by the UK Statistics Authority.
The ONS is also the authority responsible for the census.
Does This Work for Wales?
As well as being one of the few UK-wide agencies headquartered in Wales, the Office of National Statistics is highly regarded. According to a 2024 survey, 87% of people trust official statistics and there was agreement that official statistics (like the census) are “important to understand the country”1.
While StatsWales does a good job of providing data on devolved services, there are gaps (particularly economic and financial statistics) which are often based on estimates.
Since 2017, there have been calls for more ONS jobs to relocate back from Newport to London.
The Centre for Cities2 argued that Newport was to blame for (supposed) “lower quality output”, believing it would make more sense for the ONS to be based in a “deeper, more highly-skilled labour market where recruitment is easier”. Some of these issues have also been blamed on a reluctance by London-based statisticians to relocate to Newport3.
The Financial Times4 criticised the physical distance between the ONS and London-based economists and the Bank of England.
As the census hasn’t been included in Schedule 7A of the Government of Wales Act it’s technically devolved to Wales. Though to date the Senedd has never taken up the option of creating a Wales-only census.
Independence & Official Statistics: Pros & Cons
Some highly skilled and senior roles currently based in London would need to be created at a Welsh statistics authority (economists, senior managers), providing a small number of good graduate or post-graduate level jobs.
Wales would have full control over the census (it’s in a grey area at the moment). We could, if we wanted to, change how it’s run, how often it’s held and what questions are asked (more on this later).
Having a dedicated statistics authority for Wales may produce more accurate statistics because gathering information should be easier in a smaller country. It would be easier for a Welsh statistics authority to build relationships with local communities, businesses and public bodies.
Given the falling ONS headcount – and pressure from certain quarters to switch the ONS’s headquarters back to London – a Welsh statistics authority would protect some jobs.
We still have statistics “gaps” that need to be filled. It could mean that in the years immediately following independence, many stats continue to be based on good estimates rather than hard data.
The ONS has a certain level of trust built up over decades which may be hard for a Welsh equivalent to match (at least in the short term).
If we decided to stick with a full census it can be expensive. There may be better ways of doing it than asking every household to fill one out.
It may be difficult to provide reliable statistics for certain things if the sample sizes are too small (in Wales’ case, a 20th of the size of the UK).
While Wales would need its own statistics authority, it’s unlikely to employ anywhere near as many people as the ONS’s Newport office currently does.
What Do Other Countries Do?
The role of collecting official statistics is split between the ONS and the National Records of Scotland.
National Records of Scotland is responsible for civil registration and collecting information about the population (demographics). They also oversee the census in Scotland – which is devolved.
The national statistics institute is the Central Statistics Office (CSO), an independent government agency.
Ireland undertakes a full/traditional household census every five years.
The Federal Statistics Office is the main statistics agency run directly by the federal government.
Switzerland doesn’t have a full household census. Instead, they use data already held by the government (national and local). This is combined with surveys of 200,000 (general survey), 40,000 (specific topics like health and transport) and 3,000 households (current affairs, attitudes and lifestyles).
Stats NZ is the official statistics office.
A full household census is undertaken every five years.
Statistics Netherlands is the official statistics authority and an independent government agency.
The Dutch don’t hold a full household census. Instead, they use data from public registers and sample surveys.
What Options Does Wales Have (Statistics Agency)?
Firstly, we need to consider what kind of information we would need:
- Population (numbers of people, ages, immigration, emigration and future estimates).
- Health & wellbeing (disability, general happiness, lifestyles.
- Employment, unemployment, work and household incomes.
- Economics (GVA, imports, exports, production, property, tourism etc).
- Inflation, retail prices and wages.
- Public sector performance (NHS waiting times, public sector staff etc).
- Public spending and tax receipts.
This would probably be the default option. It would have to be expanded to take on extra work, but most of the staff are already in place. StatsWales would take on responsibility for the census as well as the higher-level statistics currently gathered by the ONS.
The ONS continues as is in England, Scotland and Wales with a Wales-based office. The ONS would continue to undertake the census and the Welsh Government would contribute towards its running costs.
Eurostat collects statistics from national agencies so cross-border statistics agencies are viable.
What Options Does Wales Have (The Census)?
All households in Wales would continue to fill out a national census every 5 or 10 years. This would be the most thorough method, but also the most expensive.
Wales already undertakes annual household surveys. This could be used alongside information already held on public registers and databases to gather data. This would be quicker and cheaper than a national census and could be updated more regularly, possibly once a year.
This would be similar to what the Dutch do (also Denmark). Only information on public registers would be used, with no household survey.
What's at Stake?
The overall score (out of 20) is the total of the scores for the four mini-categories (out of 5 each).
How Would This Be Run?
A Chief Statistician would be appointed by the Senedd and confirmed by the Senedd committee responsible for national statistics.
It would be run as is, though England, Scotland and Wales would manage it jointly. All of the national parliaments could confirm senior appointments.
A formal agreement/contract would need to be signed between the Welsh Government and ONS. The ONS would likely need a name change too as the “National” bit would no longer apply.
How Much Will This Cost?
Headline: To be “cost neutral” (spending roughly the same as we do now) a Welsh statistics agency would have a budget of up to £25 million per year. Wales could save millions of pounds a year with a smaller statistics agency and/or switching to a different type of census.
A proportional Welsh share of the ONS’s annual spending is around £20.5 million5, though a sizable chunk of the ONS’s budget may be spent in Wales due to their Newport HQ.
The Welsh Government spent £4.7 million on statistics in 2024-256. If we wanted something similar in size and scope as the National Records of Scotland, we would be looking at a budget of £6.4 million in a non-census year7.
Traditional household census – A proportional Welsh population-based share of the 2021 census cost is around £45 million, spread over 11 years8, so £4.1 million a year.
National Survey – The current annual National Survey of Wales is set to cost £2.5 million a year from 20269 – 60% of the cost of a household census.
Use public register data – In the Netherlands, switching to this method costs €1.4 million (£1.2 million) a year10 compared to hundreds of millions of euros for a full household census.
Would any new taxes need to be introduced?
No.
Who will pay for this?
Central government funding (all taxpayers).
How Long Would This Take?
However long it takes to reach a service agreement between the Welsh Government and ONS, so it could happen quickly.
Likely to be between a year or two years. It depends on what positions need to be filled, how many staff would transfer from ONS (or other agencies) and what the budget would be. Establishing a new official statistics agency may need a law passed by the Senedd (up to a year by itself).
The Senedd would make the decision and this would either be included alongside any law establishing a Welsh statistics agency or as census regulations (which would be quicker). We can take our time on this though as it’s not urgent.
People & Work
The single biggest question arising from this is: “What would happen to the ONS in Newport”?
The ONS has already spent a lot of time and effort since thee 2000s moving its HQ to Newport from London, so it’s very unlikely that they would listen to those calling for it to move back.
However, once it’s deemed affordable or politically desirable to do so, the ONS probably will leave Newport: independence, devolution or not.
Given the increasing popularity of working from home, there may not be a long-term need for a single HQ either. You also have to factor in what AI may mean for statistics gathering and what that would mean for the ONS’s workforce in the longer-term.
Anyone interested in public affairs or accountability, though journalists, politicians, businesspeople, social scientists and economists in particular.
All households in Wales would be impacted by changes to the census, including the possibility of no longer having to fill one out (if we changed the format of the census).
The ONS employs 2,595 full-time equivalent staff at its Newport office and 1,797 in England11. In recent years, the number of people employed at the Newport office has been declining by around 370 posts annually.
If a standalone Wales-only statistics agency were to be established, it would likely employ between 250-400 people based on examples from Scotland and Ireland. This suggests that if such an agency replaced the ONS, there could potentially be a net loss of around 2,195-2,345 posts.
However, considering that only about 20% of staff at the Newport office are present on any given weekday (likely due to remote working arrangements), the actual number of ONS staff working day-to-day in Newport may be as low as 500-600. The rest could be located anywhere and not just in Wales.
Many statisticians might relocate to England with the ONS, while some could transfer to roles at a Welsh statistics agency through TUPE or similar arrangements. Additionally, job creation may occur elsewhere in the Welsh public sector for positions that currently don’t exist (such as equivalents of DWP, HMRC, MOD, and Foreign Office). People leaving downsized UK Government agencies like ONS could be given first refusal to fill any vacancies (if they are qualified).
National Centre for Social Research (14th May 2024). “Public awareness and trust in official statistics remains high”.
Centre for Cities (10th August 2017). “Should we move more public sector jobs out of London?”
Simmons, M. The Spectator (29th November 2024). “Does anyone know how many people live in Britain?”
O’Connor, S. The Financial Times (October 15th 2015) “UK statistical office suffered in Wales move, says former BoE official”.
UK Statistics Authority (18th July 2024). “Annual Report & Accounts”. 5% share of Total Operating Expenditure of £409 million.
Welsh Government, Welsh Budget 2024-25. “Final Budget Main Expenditure Group, Central Services & Administration” (p29).
National Records Scotland. “Annual Report 2023-24, Operating Expenditure” (p75). 57% of the annual budget of £11.2 million based on Wales’ population compared to Scotland.
Office of National Statistics (1st April 2021). FOI Request: “2021 Census: Costs, data sharing, fines, data security, and questions”.
Sell2Wales (5th May 2025). “Contract Award Notice, National Survey of Wales 2026-27 to 2031/2033″.
IPUMS International, “Dutch Census 2011: Analysis and Methodology, Statistics Netherlands”.
Office of National Statistics (15th July 2024). FOI Request: “Office attendance records by ONS site”.
Mistral OpenOrca was used to simplify the wording of the original draft for the “Would any jobs be created or lost?” sub-section.
