This final look at the 2021 census focuses on some of the factors that determine an individual’s life chances. Other than work and social class, three of those factors are education, disability and caring responsibilities.
A final reminder of the ground rules:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
What’s the overall national picture?
There’s been a consistent and fairly rapid decline in the proportion of people without qualifications over the last 20 years. In total, there’s been a 13.5 percentage point drop since 2001.
However, 19.9% of over-16s still hold no qualifications – almost 1-in-5 people. This is higher than the EnglandandWales figure (18.2%).
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
Every local authority in Wales has seen a double-digit percentage point drop since 2001 and most saw a 5-6% drop since 2011.
The good news is the drop has been far more pronounced in post-industrial/former coalfield authorities over the last 20 years including Blaenau Gwent (-17.1%), Merthyr Tydfil (-17.0%), Rhondda Cynon Taf (-16.3%) and Caerphilly (-15.6%).
Despite that, many Valley local authorities retain an above-average proportion of people without qualifications. It just underlines the high starting point, where 20-30 years ago maybe up to half of working-age people wouldn’t have any qualifications.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
The link between a lack of qualifications and relative deprivation is well known. It’s no surprise, therefore, that despite sharp declines over the last 20 years the former coalfield areas (and Newport) remain towards the top of the table.
There’s still a legacy of heavy industry which, in some cases, didn’t require any formal qualifications to be employed or had on-the-job training that didn’t come with a recognised qualification.
The expansion of alternative qualifications such as apprenticeships and investment in further education will have captured more people who might otherwise have left school without any qualifications. Minimum entry requirements for jobs have increased too.
Are there any public policy implications?
As long as the downward trend continues I don’t think there’s a need to do anything drastic. Wales is doing at least as well on this as comparable parts of England.
Ensuring there continue to be alternative paths to further and work-based education will remain important, as is upskilling people who’ve fallen through the cracks – such as young adults who are not in any education or work-based training.
There could be issues with common learning disabilities that may (but don’t alway) affect a person’s ability to gain a recognised qualification – such as dyslexia and dyscalculia – that need to be addressed.