Over the next fortnight, I’ll be taking a look at some of the key findings from the 2021 Census and what they say about Wales and how it’s changed over the last two decades. I did something similar in 2013 on the old Oggy Bloggy Ogwr.
Firstly, here are a few notes on what I’m counting and how:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
As for the census, national statistics and independence:
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What’s the overall national picture?
The Welsh resident population increased by 1.4% over the last decade to stand at 3.107million.
While this is probably the highest population ever officially recorded for Wales, the level of growth was far lower than any of the English regions over the same period – most of which saw population growth of 7% or more.
You can only judge whether it’s a good or bad thing in conjunction with other figures such as dependency ratios (which I’ll come back to later).
Lower-than-expected population growth is no bad thing in the context of the environment and resource stress. The trend suggests Wales’ population is starting to level off/stabilise and may even start to decrease 30-40 years down the line – which is something that’s happening in many parts of Europe, with England seemingly bucking the trend.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The areas south of the M4 corridor have seen the highest population growth over the last 20 years: Cardiff (+15.7%), Newport (+14.2%), Bridgend (+11.6%) and Vale of Glamorgan (+9.5%).
Over the 2011-2021 census period, Newport comes out on top with 8.7% growth. All things point towards Newport and Bridgend being the fastest growing council areas in Wales other than Cardiff, probably due to large suburban housing developments.
In contrast, Swansea’s population fell slightly (-0.2%) over the last census period – which might be surprising. The other noticeable trend is the slow depopulation of Y Fro Gymraeg, with Ceredigion (-6.2%) and Gwynedd (-3.8%) seeing some of the sharpest population decreases over the last ten years.
Elsewhere, the decline in population in Blaenau Gwent (-4.4%) stands out and depopulation in some of the valleys has been a feature over the last few census periods.
However, it seems other valleys/coalfield authorities that may have otherwise continued to see population declines – such as Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Caerphilly – have stabilised or rebounded a little.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
A mix of things including lower birth rates; Wales being less attractive to first-generation immigrants (and EU citizens who moved to the UK since 2004) than England; house prices and availability of new housing making some local authorities more attractive than others; the hollowing out of smaller rural communities pushing younger people away; employment opportunities (or lack of).
Are there any public policy implications?
The obvious implication is that population changes impact how much money councils will receive in future local government settlements – which affects schools, social services and other public services. If Wales continues to have a smaller proportion of the UK population then it could – at some point in the future – result in cuts to UK Government funding as the Barnett Formula is at least partially based on population relative to England. At the moment it’s maintained at a certain level.
This will be particularly worrying for rural areas that have seen population falls such as Ceredigion and Gwynedd, as public services are generally more expensive to provide in rural areas anyway.
There will be some measure of protection due to how budgets are calculated. Despite this, it probably means the issue of local government reorganisation will need to be revisited in the next 20 years if some smaller council areas become increasingly “unviable” as stand-alone units.
