Over the next fortnight, I’ll be taking a look at some of the key findings from the 2021 Census and what they say about Wales and how it’s changed over the last two decades. I did something similar in 2013 on the old Oggy Bloggy Ogwr.
Firstly, here are a few notes on what I’m counting and how:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
As for the census, national statistics and independence:
What’s the overall national picture?
There’s been a slight decline nationally in under-14s of 0.4% – which would be within a margin of error for most things and probably counts as being “stable(ish)”.
The main thing of note is that the majority of the decline in younger people as a proportion of the population happened between 2001-2011, with the signs being that the rate of decline slowed between 2011-2021 and even reversed in a few places.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
Despite the colour scheme on the graph, there’s remarkably little difference between local authorities. The majority fall within a range of between 16-17.5% of the resident population being aged under 14.
There’s no set pattern to the decline over the last two census periods, but it seems as though Powys, Monmouthshire and Pembrokeshire have seen the brunt of the decline in young people as a proportion of the population. The decline over the last 20 years in Blaenau Gwent (-3.8%) will tie in with its fall in total residents.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
People have had fewer children over the last 15-20 years, but based on the slowing decline between 2011-2021 it suggests there may have been an increase in births immediately following the Great Recession (2007-2009 period) but not to the extent of counting as a “baby boom”.
Are there any public policy implications?
There are around 4,000 fewer people in Wales aged 14 and under in 2021 compared to 2011 and 36,000 fewer compared to 2001.
At a national level that’s only a blip. At a local level, however, a fall in school-age children could put smaller schools at risk. It’ll also affect the amount of funding they get from the Welsh Government and councils.
Maintaining stable population levels is generally good for society and the environment. Though as mentioned earlier, all things point towards a possible population decline in Wales over the longer term.
For politics and politicians more generally: don’t count on younger people riding to your rescue as they’re going to be massively outnumbered in the short term.
