Over the next fortnight, I’ll be taking a look at some of the key findings from the 2021 Census and what they say about Wales and how it’s changed over the last two decades. I did something similar in 2013 on the old Oggy Bloggy Ogwr.
Firstly, here are a few notes on what I’m counting and how:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
As for the census, national statistics and independence:
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What’s the overall national picture?
Wales’ population density stood at 150 people-per-square-km in 2021 and it’s been stable over the last 20 years, only increasing by 10 people-per-sqkm since 2001.
While these figures are low in a UK context, internationally it means Wales has:
- a similar population density to China.
- a higher population density than France, Denmark, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Turkey.
- a population density between 4 and 5 times that of the United States.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
Cardiff has seen the sharpest increase in population density by some way, rising to over 2,500 people-per-sqkm – more than 400 people-per-sqkm higher in 2021 than it was in 2001.
That’s the sign of a rapidly altering city landscape and it outstrips anywhere else in Wales, with Newport (+119 people-per-sqkm since 2001) being the closest over the same period.
Elsewhere, changes have been more modest. You wouldn’t expect the population density to rapidly increase in large, rural local authorities like Ceredigion, Gwynedd and Powys anyway.
Population density for a county may also inaccurately reflect population density on the ground. In the Valleys, for example, most people will live on a strip a mile or so wide along a valley floor.
So at a local level, the population density in somewhere like Porth, Blackwood or Mountain Ash may be quite high. Elsewhere, the population density in a town or city with large suburbs like Bridgend, Caerphilly, Wrexham and Cwmbran will be relatively lower.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
For Cardiff, you can point to increased numbers living in high-rise student accommodation and apartments. They’re not popular architecturally or socially, but they make the most efficient use of land. Cardiff was also starting with a much higher population than any other local authority in Wales.
You could say the same about Swansea. Though as a local authority, its land area is larger and takes in a big rural area (Gower) so it wouldn’t distort its figures.
Also, new build homes have become proportionally smaller so you can fit more people onto less land. Many new developments often have at least one or two mid-height apartment blocks to cater for increased single-person or childless households.
Are there any public policy implications?
Higher population densities may be good news for the environment and transport planners. Generally, higher population densities suit fixed public transport links like light rail – so all of this suggests that the South Wales Metro ought to be well-used once it’s fully up and running and it may make the case stronger for cross-valley fixed public transport links, the Swansea Bay Metro and improvements along the northern coast.
Higher population densities also make “15-minute neighbourhoods” more achievable, may lead to an agglomeration effect (attracting more investment) and fewer, higher-density residential developments can protect the greenbelt.
There is a downside, of course. It means the experiences of the south and northeast are going to be very different to rural Wales. It would be much harder to argue for the centralisation of key public services in areas with lower population densities because it moves services further away. What works along the M4 corridor might not work in Powys or Carmarthenshire.
It’ll also means that proposals for fixed transport links in lower-density areas – such as the long-campaigned-for reintstatement of an Aberystwyth-Carmarthen railway – will be deemed to be less viable.
