Over the next fortnight, I’ll be taking a look at some of the key findings from the 2021 Census and what they say about Wales and how it’s changed over the last two decades. I did something similar in 2013 on the old Oggy Bloggy Ogwr.
Firstly, here are a few notes on what I’m counting and how:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
As for the census, national statistics and independence:
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What’s the overall national picture?
5.6% of residents in Wales were born outside the UK in 2021 compared to an “EnglandandWales” total of 16.8%.
In Wales, the figure increased by just 1.1% since 2011. This compares to a 4.8% increase since 2001, which suggests figures have started to tail off – or even decline – over the last decade.
According to the Welsh Government, the most common nationality of those living in Wales who were born outside the UK is Polish (24,832 people), with Indian, German, Irish and Romanian making up the remainder of the top 5.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
Anglesey is the only local authority that saw a (very slight) fall in the number of people born outside the UK since 2011 (-0.1%).
Everywhere else has seen an increase, with the largest increase – perhaps unsurprisingly – being in Cardiff (+3.2%), which has also seen the biggest increase since 2001 (+8.9%).
Cardiff (16.5%) and Newport (12.2%) are the only local authorities that reach double figures in terms of the proportion of residents born outside the UK – Swansea narrowly misses out – and Cardiff is the only local authority that gets anywhere close to the “EnglandandWales” figure (16.8%).
In every other local authority, the numbers are fairly low, with Valleys local authorities being a standout in that regard.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
The extension of free movement to EU assession states in 2004 led to a fast increase between 2001-2011, followed by the post-Brexit ending of free movement during 2016-2021.
There’s also the increase in the number of overseas students studying at Welsh universities over the same period, though student enrolments from EU member states started to decline post-Brexit, being replaced by increasing enrolments from Asia.
People from outside the UK may also prefer to settle in areas where there are lots of people from the same place – which favours big urban areas or university towns.
Are there any public policy implications?
You can’t take the “number born outside the UK” figures and treat them in isolation to decide how successful or unsuccessful immigration policies have been.
Any suggestion that Wales is being “swamped” by excessive migration from overseas is bullshit. It’s a narrative some on the right like to push, but it doesn’t reflect reality. “High” immigration is very much an English issue and, if anything, migration to Wales from overseas is low compared to the rest of the UK. That’s not surprising when there are comparatively fewer economic opportunities here.
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