Over the next fortnight, I’ll be taking a look at some of the key findings from the 2021 Census and what they say about Wales and how it’s changed over the last two decades. I did something similar in 2013 on the old Oggy Bloggy Ogwr.
Firstly, here are a few notes on what I’m counting and how:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
As for the census, national statistics and independence:
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What’s the overall national picture?
Wales is in line with European averages, but within the UK we’re likely to have higher proportions of dependents than other nations and regions.
The dependency ratio increased nationally by 6.3 points since 2011 but only done so by 3.8 points since 2001 suggesting the increase has accelerated over the last 10 years. Generally speaking, that’s bad news – but it reflects a trend in many other parts of the western world.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The increase in the dependency ratio since the last census is much more marked in Anglesey (+11.8), Ceredigion (+11.0) and Powys (+10.8) than elsewhere in Wales, with honourable mentions to Denbighshire, Pembrokeshire, Vale of Glamorgan and Monmouthshire.
Rural council areas seem to have higher dependency ratios than urban areas, but when you consider the figures for the proportion of residents aged over-65 this shouldn’t be a surprise.
The only two local authorities to have seen their dependency ratios fall since 2001 are Cardiff (-5.4) and Newport (-2.9). Swansea (+1.4), Merthyr Tydfil (+1.8) and Blaenau Gwent (no change) have also seen significantly below-average increases or no increase since 2001.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
It likely correlates with the increase in the proportion of over-65s as mentioned earlier and maybe fewer-than-expected people entering their prime “working age” years to compensate.
Are there any public policy implications?
High dependency ratios are considered to be “bad” because it means fewer people of working age are supporting those in retirement (under-14s are counted but are less important as they will eventually reach working age).
In a worst-case scenario, it can lead to labour shortages, decreased economic productivity and higher taxes on working-age people to support increased spending on social security.
The orthodox move to address it would be to encourage higher birth rates to increase the number of future workers to maintain or increase tax revenues and economic productivity. In terms of specific policies that means things like lower housing costs, higher child benefits, free childcare, higher wages and more radical suggestions like a universal basic income.
The problem we now have is that an increased birth rate is probably the worst thing that can happen to the environment. One alternative policy would be to encourage the immigration of working-age adults, which – to put it mildly – would be a very hard sell to certain groups.
A situation where the Welsh population is declining – with fewer people to support an ageing society – certainly undermine any economic case for independence too.
