Over the next fortnight, I’ll be taking a look at some of the key findings from the 2021 Census and what they say about Wales and how it’s changed over the last two decades. I did something similar in 2013 on the old Oggy Bloggy Ogwr.
Firstly, here are a few notes on what I’m counting and how:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
As for the census, national statistics and independence:
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What’s the overall national picture?
It’s the opposite of under-14s, with the proportion of over-65s in Wales accelerating over the last 10 years, increasing by 2.9% since 2011 and 3.9% since 2001.
A little over 1-in-5 people living in Wales are aged over-65 as of 2021 and there are around 157,000 more over-65s living in Wales in 2021 compared to 2001.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The obvious pattern is that rural mid and western Wales is “ageing” faster than the rest of the country.
While the “Costa Geriactrica” (Conwy and Denbighshire) have amongst the highest proportions of residents aged over-65 in Wales, Powys and Monmouthshire have seen the fastest increases since 2001 (both +7.8%).
Only one local authority area has seen a decline in the proportion of over-65s since 2001 – very narrowly – and that’s Cardiff (-0.1%).
Cardiff (14.9%), Newport (17%), Merthyr Tydfil (18.9%) and Rhondda Cynon Taf (19.6%) are the proportionally “younger” local authorities.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
The obvious reason is that the baby boomer generation (those born between 1946-1964) has started to cross the 65+ age threshold in bigger numbers over the last 10 years. We knew that was coming so it shouldn’t be a surprise.
That will no doubt be topped up by retirees moving to parts of Wales, but that’s not going to be the single explanation for it. Although it could mean that the proportion of over-65s in rural Wales in particular is artificially high.
Similarly, the effect of younger, working-age people leaving some council areas will increase the proportion of over-65s without increasing the number of them.
Are there any public policy implications?
It would be completely unfair to categorise over-65s as a “net drain on resources” as the retirement age will increase to 68 over the coming decades and many over-65s continue to work well into their 70s – particularly farmers.
Nonetheless, age comes with its own set of problems such as increased demand for health and social care services, ageism in the workplace and wider society, as well as issues with pensioner poverty (such as rising fuel costs and an over-reliance on state pensions).
There’s a need to extend “healthy life expectancy” – the number of years a person is considered to be “in good health” – which is often reached earlier than the retirement age.
Diabetes is an increasing problem and often emerges in the mid-to-late 60s, as are complications relating to lack of exercise and obesity.
Polling has shown that older generations are generally less favourable to independence than younger generations. That presents an immediate handicap to winning the argument and should re-focus efforts to address “stability and continuity” issues such as pensions, currency and the future of health services post-independence.
