Next in my look a the key results from the 2021 census is language – always one of the more popular topics.
A reminder of the ground rules:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous conclusions.
An additional note: usually only those aged 3+ are counted, but the figures below include the entire population. That means the figures presented here will be different to those that have been officially published – though not by much.
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What’s the overall national picture?
Amongst the whole population, 17.3% said they could speak Welsh in 2021 (discounting under-3s, 17.8%). This was the second consecutive fall in the proportion of the population who are Welsh speakers under the census.
In actual numbers, there were 538,300 Welsh speakers in Wales in 2021. This is around 26,000 fewer than in 2011 and 46,000 fewer than in 2001.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The good news is there’s been a noticeable increase in the proportion of Welsh speakers in the South Wales Central region (Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, RCT). Cardiff comes out of it the best (+1.2%) even if the proportion of Welsh speakers overall (11.8%) is below average.
The bad news is the decline of the Welsh language in its traditional heartland since 2001, particularly Ceredigion (-6.3%) and, most notably, Carmarthenshire (-9.9%). “Y Fro Gymraeg” of Anglesey, Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire still just about exists, but there’s very little good news elsewhere.
Five local authorities continue to have a Welsh-speaking proportion of the population that’s below 10%: Bridgend (9.0%), Merthyr Tydfil (8.6%), Monmouthshire (8.4%), Newport (7.3%) and Blaenau Gwent (6.3%).
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
Probably the same points I raised at the last census such as the natural loss of older Welsh speakers in Y Fro and the depopulation of rural Wales.
There’s always the question of access to Welsh-medium education (or lack of) and maybe people underestimate their Welsh-speaking ability. The pessimistic take would be that people may overestimate their Welsh-speaking ability and the figures are actually worse than they appear.
Are there any public policy implications?
You could probably write an entire article on this topic in its own right, but the Welsh Government’s goal of 1 million Welsh speakers by 2050 is as far away as ever. A decline is an embarrassment and it brings their entire strategy into question.
Wales is seemingly driven by PR and back-slapping so these stats always seem to be padded by younger children attending Welsh-medium schools which gives the false impression there are more Welsh speakers than there actually are. So you end up with Welsh Government estimates of year-on-year increases taking figures up to 700,000-800,000 Welsh speakers.
I’m in no doubt many people tie the Welsh language and independence together, believing one can’t happen without the other – but independence certainly won’t be won or lost on the language issue as harsh as that might be for some to hear. There’s a risk that Welsh speakers are treated like a bloc that all think and act the same when that’s probably not the case.
