Next in my look a the key results from the 2021 census is language – always one of the more popular topics.
A reminder of the ground rules:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous conclusions.
An additional note: usually only those aged 3+ are counted, but the figures below include the entire population. That means the figures presented here will be different to those that have been officially published – though not by much.
What’s the overall national picture?
This is more a “control test” so I won’t dwell too much on it, but it’s the opposite of the Welsh-language figures (obviously) – though that doesn’t necessarily mean everyone counted is fluent in English. Over 82% of the population of Wales can’t speak Welsh.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The only local authorities where the non-Welsh-speaking figure gets anywhere close to or below 50% are the Y Fro council areas: Gwynedd (37.3%), Anglesey (45.7%), Ceredigion (55.7%) and Carmarthenshire (66.1%).
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
The most optimistic interpretation would be that people are underestimating their Welsh language abilities and opted not to count themselves as Welsh speakers.
The drop in the number of people aged 3-16 will have played its part as well as this age group will be far more likely to be considered Welsh speakers if they attend Welsh-medium schools or learn it as a first language another way.
Are there any public policy implications?
English will continue to remain the main language of public and daily life in Wales everywhere outside Y Fro. It would’ve taken something miraculous for that to have changed since 2001, let alone 2011.
It also suggests moves to make Welsh second language compulsory to GCSE level (which happened in 2001 IIRC) failed to instil any confidence or real ability in Welsh – though you will probably need a more detailed age breakdown to determine that for sure.
Again it points to the long-term solution being increased Welsh-medium education. Though even a majority of children in Wales ended up going through the Welsh medium system, it would probably take decades for that to make any difference to the figures.
There are also cultural issues to consider such as the social and cultural dominance of the English language in the media – films, music, television/streaming, games and social media.
It also underlines that any case for independence will be won or lost amongst monoglot English speakers. You can still accept that without undermining the Welsh language or the push for a revival.
