The next set of key results from the 2021 census covers identity.
That includes national identity, ethnicity and – for the first time – official statistics on sexual orientation.
A reminder of the ground rules:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous conclusions.
What’s the overall national picture?
A majority of people in Wales still identify as being exclusively Welsh (55.2%) – though this is down by 2.3% on 2011; not a massive decline, but significant.
Similarly, a clear majority give at least some Welsh identity (63.3%) – which is also down in the 2011 census (-1.3%).
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The general picture is that Welsh identity has grown slightly in the north-west, but declined everywhere else – most sharply in the Valleys. Despite this, Welsh-only identity remains very strong in what would be considered “Welsh Wales” in Balsom’s Three Wales Model.
Merthyr Tydfil (70.1% Welsh-only identity) can probably stake a claim to being the “Welshest part of Wales”, with honourable mentions to Rhondda Cynon Taf (69.8% Welsh-only identity) and Caerphilly (69.2% Welsh only).
Even in heavily Anglicised areas such as Bridgend (64.7%) and Torfaen (63.1%), Welsh-only identity comes out on top. So although numbers are down on what they were in 2011, it’s down from a very high starting point and doesn’t make that much of a difference overall.
Taken together with the Welsh language figures, it suggests that Carmarthenshire might be gradually moving from being part of “Y Fro Gymraeg” to being part of “Welsh Wales”.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
As you’ll see later on there’s been an increase in people identifying as British – though they remain the minority.
That could be a post-Brexit effect of Leavers identifying more with the UK now that it’s out of the EU than Wales. It may also be a mini backlash against independence, with those against independence increasingly more willing to identify as British than Welsh (or both).
Are there any public policy implications?
Not really, more so for political parties. It does suggest that using Wales as a brand rather than the UK may present an advantage in most of the country and that “muscular unionism” or trying to subvert Welsh identity won’t be popular.
This isn’t just a Welsh thing either. Similar proportions of Scots, English and Northern Irish living in Wales identified with their home nation more than Britain/UK.
Â
