This final look at the 2021 census focuses on some of the factors that determine an individual’s life chances. Other than work and social class, three of those factors are education, disability and caring responsibilities.
A final reminder of the ground rules:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
What’s the overall national picture?
While the proportion of those without qualifications has dropped, there’s been an equal increase in those with university-level qualifications.
31.5% of over-16s have at least a Level 4 qualification as of 2021 – an increase of 7% since 2011 and 14.1% since 2001. The rate is lower than the EnglandandWales average (33.8%) but better than comparable English regions such as the North East (28.6%).
So for the first time in a census, there are more people with a university-level qualification living in Wales than those are with no qualifications at all.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
40% of people in Cardiff have a Level 4 qualification or above, which is the highest proportion in Wales. Monmouthshire (39.4%) follows closely behind, as does the Vale of Glamorgan (37.3%). University authorities such as Swansea, Gwynedd and Ceredigion are all above average.
Rates are a bit lower across the Valleys, being below 26% in Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil and Caerphilly.
What’s interesting though is that growth has been consistent everywhere over the last 20 years, with most local authorities seeing increases of between 13-15%.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
You would expect higher-than-average proportions of people with degree-level qualifications to live in local authorities that host universities – nothing unusual about that.
Moves to widen access to higher and further education have borne fruit and there’s no indication that increased student debt has put anyone off studying to a higher level.
If you work in the public sector – particularly the NHS, education and some local government roles – then degrees or higher apprenticeships are often essential. Wales has a higher proportion working in the public sector, hence more people with university-level education.
Are there any public policy implications?
I’m assuming most people consider this to be a good thing, but it does emphasise what a disaster the brain drain and underemployment have been for Wales.
We’re not doing enough to turn this sizable proportion of well-education working-age people into any kind of economic benefit. There’s a good chance many people who’ve gone on to further or higher education to improve their life chances end up having to settle for less – or move out of Wales – because the job opportunities aren’t here.
