This final look at the 2021 census focuses on some of the factors that determine an individual’s life chances. Other than work and social class, three of those factors are education, disability and caring responsibilities.
A final reminder of the ground rules:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
What’s the overall national picture?
21.6% of people had a life-limiting disability in 2021, which is a decline of 1.4% since 2011 and 1.9% since 2001 – so the decrease accelerated over the last decade.
Despite the fall, there remains a significantly higher proportion of people with life-limiting disabilities in Wales than the EnglandandWales average (17.8%).
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
While some local authorities have been faster-than-average falls over the last 20 years – particularly Merthyr Tydfil (-6.2%) Rhondda Cynon Taf (-3.7%) and Blaenau Gwent (-3.4%) – local authorities across the Valleys retain some of the highest proportions of disabled people in EnglandandWales.
There aren’t massive differences between local authorities, though some have noticeably lower or below-average proportions of people with disabilities including Cardiff (18.6%), Flintshire (19.1%) and Gwynedd (19.2%).
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
There’ll be a continued legacy of heavy industry, with people in their 50s and over continuing to live with industrial-related and manual labour-linked injuries and medical conditions.
There’s an “optimistic” interpretation and a “pessimistic” one on the decline more generally.
The optimistic take is that people are healthier (or feel healthier) than they have been in the past – which would be a pleasant surprise. Some people may also have benefited from new medical treatments that may have prevented them from becoming disabled. One big change that could have made a positive impact here is the decline in smoking, which would cut the number of people with life-limiting conditions like COPD.
The pessimistic take is that it’s a result of excess mortality and/or people finding it harder to be designated as disabled under the Equality Act (or just falling short). It won’t entirely be down to age either, as the local authorities with higher proportions of people with life-limiting disabilities are generally “younger” than Welsh averages. Also the proportion of people with physical disabilities may be masking those with hidden disabilities or long-term mental health problems that might not be “life limiting” but still have an impact.
Are there any public policy implications?
The obvious one is that Welsh residents will have been disproportionately impacted by welfare reform and disability assessments.
People with disabilities will face more barriers that may otherwise be overlooked or treated as an afterthought. All too often people with disabilities are written off (or write themselves off).
It also underlines the low levels of representation of people with disabilities in Welsh public life; based on these figures it’s a bigger problem than race and sexual identity.
