The first half of this series focused on general transport issues – not only those that need to be addressed under devolution but are key to managing transport after independence too.
These final five parts are what you’ve been waiting for. It’s time for specifics, including a look at some of the transport policies available to us after independence.
The first stop on that journey is roads and active travel.
According to the Welsh Government1, in 2016 carbon emissions from cars made up 55% of emissions from transport. Light trucks, HGVs and buses made up an additional 30% combined. In isolation, road transport made up 11.9% of all Welsh emissions in 2016.
The UK Government has already announced that the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans will be banned from 2030, with only hybrids or zero-emission vehicles allowed to be sold between 2030-2035. After that point, all new cars will need to be zero emission.
At the end of 20222, there were just over 23,000 electric or hybrid vehicles registered in Wales. Of those, 21,700 were cars or motorbikes (and nearly all of those were cars).
However, this is only 1.3% of the just under 1.7million cars and motorbikes registered in Wales in the same period3.
Some countries have been more successful, while others – like the Republic of Ireland – are in a similar position to Wales.
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There’s EU coordination on this anyway, but even then the approach taken in non-EU states (like Norway) is similar. There are some common themes:
- 2030-2035 seems to be the most common target date for a ban on petrol and diesel car sales.
- Most governments have set targets for EVs as a share of all vehicles.
- There’s often a subsidy or tax incentive for new EV purchases (though the likes of Germany also offer them for used purchases) and these are being gradually withdrawn as market share increases.
- There are usually some localised benefits and incentives such as toll reductions or free parking.
Early adopters have had far more success in boosting EV uptake than slower countries.
Also, as noted in the graphic, Iceland has an advantage in abundant renewable energy sources, while Norway has (ironically) sovereign wealth from oil and gas exports to underwrite new investments.
As major car producers, France and Germany have closely tied EV uptake to industrial strategies; the UK has too but its commitments are pretty vague in comparison.
In terms of new EV sales, the UK isn’t doing that badly – though the UK Government withdrew its subsidies in 2022 to focus on infrastructure rollout.
As for Wales, new detailed guidance has been issued for EV infrastructure and the Welsh Government’s strategy predicts up to 55,000 fast chargers and 4,000 rapid chargers being required by 20304.
To meet this target, the Welsh Government expects 50% of vehicles on the road to be EVs by 2030 and 100% by 2040. We’re nowhere near that at the moment.
So, what should we consider?
- The time has probably long passed to offer subsidies to switch to zero-emission cars – and under devolution, the Welsh Government couldn’t do so anyway. We’re not likely to be independent before the 2030-35 phased petrol and diesel ban comes into effect, regardless.
- Any vehicle subsidies are perhaps best aimed at those which are difficult-to-decarbonise (buses, diesel taxis, HGVs, LGVs) but they’re likely to come at a higher cost.
- Subsidising charging infrastructure may be a better use of money given there’s now a cut-off point for petrol and diesel. The bulk of this ought to be aimed at rural areas and the freight industry where travelling by road is the only realistic option; we shouldn’t chase numbers but think more about the length and necessity of EV car journeys.
- Given how much land car parks waste, more attention could be focused on converting them into solar carports. There also needs to be clear standards/guidance for home charging as some charging infratructure can pose a risk to pedestrians more generally, as well as the elderly and disabled (i.e. trip hazards).
- Cutting car use in urban areas ought to remain a priority regardless of how “green” they might be. If car use isn’t addressed, we’ll end up with the same congestion and particulate air pollution issues.
- Pure EVs are likely to be more dangerous to pedestrians and cyclists due to their higher weight, quietness and fast acceleration. There ought to be consideration of future weight limits for new car purchases (i.e. an electric SUV ban).
- The broader issue of moving more freight from road to rail (Part VIII) – a long-held ambition in Wales, but there’s only been hot air to date.
1. Welsh Government (June 2019). “Transport: Sector emission pathway” (p2). Available here: https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2019-06/transport-sector-emission-pathway-factsheet.pdf
2. UK Department of Transport (15th June 2023) “Vehicle licensing statistics” (Table VEH0101a)
3. UK Department of Transport (15th June 2023) “Vehicle licensing statistics” (Table VEH0141a)
4. Welsh Government (June 2021). “Electric vehicle charging strategy for Wales” (p24 -27). Available here: https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-03/electric-vehicle-charging-strategy-wales.pdf
