Image Source: Google Earth (taken July 2023)
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 26.8% | 1st |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 79.2 | 3rd |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 83.1 | 2nd |
| Employment Rate | 73.9% | 7th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 22.5% | 11th |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £695.50 | 9th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 15.0% | 15th |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 41,900 | 5th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 27.5% | 4th |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 39.0% | 3rd |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Rural – Most people live in smaller towns and villages with great distances between them.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Independent (8), Interdependent (7)
Local Government Political Control
Ceredigion (Plaid Cymru), Pembrokeshire (Non-Political/Multi-Party)
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Eluned Morgan
- Marc Tierney
- Joshua Phillips
- Margaret Greenaway
- Tansaim Hussain-Gul
- Luke Davies-Jones
- Peter Jenkins
Liberal Democrats
- Sandra Jervis
- Alistair Cameron
- Tom Hughes
- Lee Herring
- Andrew Lye
- Maggie Robinson
Conservatives
- Paul Davies
- Sam Kurtz
- Claire George
- Brian Murphy
- Gill Evans
- Claire Jones
Greens
- Amy Nicholass
- Tomass Jereminovics
- James Purchase
- Morgan Phillips
- Rosie O’Toole
- Kezia Hine
Plaid Cymru
- Elin Jones
- Kerry Ferguson
- Anna Nicholl
- Cris Tomos
- Colin Nosworthy
- Clive Davies
- Owain Jones
- Matt Adams
Reform UK
- Susan Archibald
- Paul Marr
- Michael Timothy Allen
- Elisa Gonzalez Randall
- Peter John
- Bernard Holton
Independents & Other Parties
- Gwlad: Gwyn Wigley Evans
- Heritage Party: Elizabeth Davies
- Independent: Aaron Carey
- Independent: George Chadzy
- Independent: Paul Dawson
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans older than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on issues such as energy costs, health, social care and fear of crime. You would expect this to favour parties on the right (Conservatives, Reform UK).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is around the Welsh average. The constituency includes two universities (Aberystwyth & Trinity St. David’s) which may advantage parties which appeal to younger voters such as the Greens, Plaid Cymru and to an extent Labour.
Employment
Lower than average levels of economic inactivity would likely result in stronger support for more conservative, lower-tax parties, or parties that support stability (Conservatives, Labour). However, the area has median weekly earnings below the Welsh average, which may mask higher levels of in-work poverty.
Health
The population is generally healthier than the Welsh average. However, the older age profile may mean that health and social care remain as high a priority as they would be in areas with poorer health.
Geographic Make-Up
Large rural areas tend to advantage parties with a stronger focus on farming, affordable local housing, energy (both for and against) and tourism, such as the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
Identity & Language
A relatively high proportion of Welsh-speakers favours Plaid Cymru. The area isn’t exclusively Welsh-identifying as the southern part of the constituency (South Pembrokeshire aka. “Little England”) has traditionally fallen under “British Wales” – which may favour pro-Union parties such as the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Reform and Labour.
Brexit
The area was equally split between a Remain-supporting northern half (Ceredigion), and a Leave-supporting southern half (Pembrokeshire).
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1
1
3+
0+1
1
0+1
0
Expected to win 1 seat.
Expected to win 1 seat.
Could win at least half of the available seats.
Could win a seat if they overperform.
Expected to win 1 seat.
Could win a seat if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
