Image Source: Hefin Owen via Flickr under Creative Commons Licence BY-SA-2.0
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 25.5% | 4th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 78.9 | 7th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 82.8 | 6th |
| Employment Rate | 73.2% | 8th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 24.0% | 7th |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £680.50 | 11th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 15.0% | 14th |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 32,700 | 15th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 45.7% | 1st |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 34.0% | 10th |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Urban-Rural Mix – The population is split between those living in a few urban areas/large towns, and those living in smaller villages and towns surrounded by countryside.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Independent (2), Interdependent (7), Dependent (4)
Local Government Political Control
Isle of Anglesey (Plaid Cymru), Conwy (Ind–Plaid–Lab–Green coalition), Denbighshire, (Labour–Plaid Cymru coalition), Gwynedd (Plaid Cymru)
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Joanna Stallard
- Emily Owen
- Margaret Lewis
- Rebecca Gibbons
- Huw Vaughan Jones
- Natasha Jose
Liberal Democrats
- Leena Farhat
- David McBride
- Mark Rosenthal
- Rob Atenstaedt
- Sarah Jackson
- Preben Vangberg
Conservatives
- Janet Finch-Saunders
- Harry Saville
- Martin Peet
- Samantha Cotton
- David Ashworth
- Lucy Samuel
Greens
- Tomos Barlow
- Linda Rogers
- Nick Bounds
- Francis Cookson
- Vanessa Hall
- David Bunker
Plaid Cymru
- Rhun ap Iorwerth
- Mair Rowlands
- Elfed Williams
- Dyfed Jones
- Nia Clwyd Owen
- Vivek Thuppil
- Lisa Elfyn Butler
- Beca Roberts
Reform UK
- Helen Jenner
- John Clark
- Richard Jones
- Andrew Winston-Jones
- Craig Jones
- Dafydd Thomas
Independents & Other Parties
- Communist: Jamie Fitter
- Heritage Party: Mark Edwards
- Monster Raving Loony Party: Sir Grumpus Shorticus
- Socialist Labour: Kathrine Jones
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans older than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on issues such as energy costs, health, social care and fear of crime. You would expect this to favour parties on the right (Conservatives, Reform UK).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is higher than the Welsh average. This could boost support for parties with a “big ideas” mindset, such as the Greens and Lib Dems. The constituency includes a university (Bangor) which may advantage parties that appeal to younger voters such as the Greens, Plaid Cymru and, to an extent, Labour.
Employment
Lower than average levels of economic inactivity would likely result in stronger support for more conservative, lower-tax parties, or parties that support stability (Conservatives, Labour). However, the area has median weekly earnings below the Welsh average, which may mask higher levels of in-work poverty.
Health
The population is generally healthier than the Welsh average. However, the older age profile may mean that health and social care remain as high a priority as they would be in areas with poorer health.
Geographic Make-Up
Large rural areas tend to advantage parties with a stronger focus on farming, affordable local housing, energy (both for and against) and tourism, such as the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
Identity & Language
A relatively high proportion of Welsh-speakers favours Plaid Cymru. The area isn’t exclusively Welsh-identifying as the eastern part of the constituency (particularly towns along the north Wales coast) has traditionally fallen under “British Wales” – which may favour pro-Union parties such as the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Reform and Labour.
Brexit
The area leans towards Leave in the 2016 referendum, which would favour the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1
1
2+1
0
1+1
0+1
0
Expected to win 1 seat.
Expected to win 1 seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Could win a seat if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
