Image Source: BBC iPlayer
The relative performance (below) is calculated using a seats-to-votes ratio. It’s a measure of how proportional a result in a constituency is, but also gives you an idea as to whether a party has “beaten the D’Hondt formula” and over-performed (or the opposite).
The formula used for each constituency is:
(Seats won by a party ÷ 6*) ÷ (Votes received by a party ÷ total votes cast)
*Number of seats available in each constituency.
A year after celebrating the party’s 100th birthday, Plaid Cymru ended 100 years of Labour’s political dominance in Wales. Is this the start of a new era with no no-go areas for Plaid anymore? Or is it a firework result – a big bang, then nothing. We’ll have to wait and see.
The Good News
They won everywhere. Usually, Plaid would be expected to underperform parts of Wales that were not usually open to them, such as the south-east and north-east. That didn’t happen and, for the first time, Plaid Cymru really is “The Party of Wales”.
They also “beat” the D’Hondt method in almost every single constituency, with disproportionately favourable results. The only exception is Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, which scored 0.99. Though even saying that, I never in a million years thought Plaid Cymru would top an election in a constituency that includes Bridgend. In any other year, they would’ve done well to win a single council seat south of the M4 outside of Barry.
They also secured the largest number of votes ever cast for a party in a Senedd election and a double-digit increase in their (estimated, not notional) vote share compared to 2021. This is despite having around 35-36% of the vote; the kind of figure that only Labour have ever consistently achieved in Wales for the last few decades.
The Bad News
There isn’t much bad news.
This may sound silly, but Plaid could’ve done even better. When the results started coming coming in, I expected them to win four seats in Ceredigion Penfro, Sir Gaerfyrddin and Bangor Conwy Môn (though in the end, this was made up by winning “long shot” seats in Cardiff, Gwyr Abertawe and the south-east).
Plaid’s (estimated) vote share might have fallen, or was stable, in places like Gwynedd Maldwyn and Ceredigion Penfro – but it was probably maxed out there anyway.
The other note of caution is that this vote might be “soft”. If Plaid’s success was down to them being the best challenger to Reform, and not their policies or a genuine desire for change, then that vote could easily drift away from them.
There’s also the point I made before the election about a lack of government experience. Everyone has to start somewhere, of course, but the risk is that civil servants dominate the first few months and set the agenda, not the new ministers.
Additionally, I wouldn’t interpret this result as being groundswell support for independence (and that’s me saying that). Is it a big deal in that regard? Yes. But I would want Plaid to focus on getting people behind the idea. The best way to do that is to deliver in government: fix what’s broken now, using the tools you’ve got where you can.
If they’re going to revert to type and start expecting extra funding, or fall back to what previous Labour governments did by blaming every issue under the sun on “Westminster”, then I suspect their honeymoon period will be short-lived. We’re all bored of it now.
What happens next?
What does this leave Plaid Cymru in the Senedd?
They’ve opted for a minority government. Whether that will be their position for the entire four-year term remains to be seen, but I don’t think they need a formal coalition (yet).
They’re looking at a significant amount of extra money and resources coming their way; likely to be well over £1 million per year and over 100 staff.
The party are looking at quite a few committee chairs as well – which would be a good fit for the new MSs that have at least some local council or “procedural” experience.
What does this result mean for the party leadership?
Rhun ap Iorwerth MS (Plaid, Bangor Conwy Môn) was confirmed as First Minister on Tuesday (12th May).
The new Cabinet was appointed yesterday (13th May). It looks like a good balance in terms of experience and geography. Rhun ap Iorwerth has resisted the temptation to overfill the government, while creating a couple of deputy roles for more junior members to gain government experience.
There was some inevitability that Elin Jones MS (Plaid, Ceredigion Penfro) – as the only sitting Plaid MS with government experience – would return to the Cabinet. Most of us would’ve predicted Elfyn Llwyd being towards the top of the list as Counsel General (taking advantage of the fact it can be an external appointment).
Even if Plaid aren’t expecting any trouble, trying to maintain discipline in such a large parliamentary group won’t be easy. The Chief Whip – in this case, Heledd Fychan MS (Plaid, Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr) – is an important appointment overall.
What went well for them during the campaign?
As almost everyone is saying, the message about a “two-horse race” between themselves and Reform clearly cut through, even if it was a white lie. If you were to point to one thing winning it for them, it was that.
Overall, their campaign was bright and positive. Their comms and messaging have been excellent, from leaflets to social media. Anecdotally, there was noticeably more activity on the ground than in previous Senedd campaigns too, despite the party’s lack of resources compared to others.
What lessons do they need to learn for next time?
They need more boots on the ground, especially if they want to build on these results in next year’s local elections. What they need to avoid doing is putting forward paper candidates; put people up who actually want to win.
Those elections have become quite high-stakes now. If Plaid don’t follow through on this and start making big inroads into previous “no-go” areas for Plaid at council level, then this “surge” might peter out quite quickly. The “only alternative to Reform” message might work again, but there are only so many times they can play that card.
Secondly, sort out the candidate selections and be more transparent about them. Luke Fletcher not being re-elected after the work he did on the economy in the previous term feels wrong.
It’s also questionable how some of the people lower down the lists got there, given some of the information that’s since come to light. They can’t accuse other parties of dropping the ball on vetting when they clearly don’t do it themselves. Of course, a lot of this wouldn’t be a problem with STV.
Senedd 2026
