Plaid Cymru have put some effort into developing detailed policy platforms for health and economic development. This presents them as a credible alternative government to Labour.

Plaid have been polling consistently well since the start of 2025; that’s not a blip.

Plaid Cymru’s share of the vote is likely to be so strong (45-50%+) in some of the new constituencies (particularly Gwynedd Maldwyn and Ceredigion Penfro; possibly Sir Gaerfyrddin too), that under the new proportional voting system they may win half or more of the available seats in those constituencies. This will make up for any underperformance elsewhere (i.e. in the north-east and south-east).

Plaid Cymru voters are likely to be the most motivated to turn out and vote in a Senedd election. Plaid Cymru’s communications have notably improved too (which you would expect whilst being led by a former broadcast journalist).

Some polling has suggested positive attitudes towards Plaid Cymru amongst some non-Plaid voters. People seem less concerned about a possible Plaid-led Welsh Government than Reform, for example.

Plaid Cymru is, finally, set to become a genuinely all-Wales party. They’ll be expected to win at least one seat in every constituency. This will be absolutely vital to build a proper campaigning base for future elections. Until now, they’ve been largely confined to Y Fro and a few pockets in the south, such as Caerphilly, NPT and RCT (usually only represented on the regional lists).

They can point to some policy successes this term, notably the roll-out of universal free primary school meals and the more recent budget agreement (which provided extra funding to local councils).

They give the impression of being united and on the same page (for once). There’s nobody “outside the tent pissing in”. There are no mumblings or briefings about leadership and no obvious “cliques” – all of which have been problems within Plaid Cymru in the past.

Plaid has (rightly) parked independence. They can lobby for further powers within the Union and support the campaign for independence; they’re not mutually exclusive.

Their appearance as a credible alternative government is only surface deep. Their expected front bench, whilst being able to “talk the talk”, lacks government experience. The only (at time of dissolution) sitting Plaid Cymru MS to have held a ministerial post is Elin Jones, and that was 15 years ago. 

They’ll be quick to tell you otherwise, but Plaid Cymru historically underperforms in Senedd elections. They have long had a ceiling of around 20-25% of the vote. Current polling averages don’t have Plaid performing much better than their “best ever” election in 1999 – their success at which was largely down to a very low turnout.

Plaid have long lacked self-awareness and self-reflection. So they don’t have a clear idea of how they come across to others at times and they don’t learn lessons. “Standing up for Wales”, “Vote for Wales”, “Wales is at a crossroads/turning point”, “this is the most important election (since the last one)”, begging bowl, supposed supporters gatekeeping Welshness on social media, and being dragged into debates about the Welsh language. It may not matter as much this time around, but it’s still a broken record.

While it’s not a manifesto, Plaid’s “First 100 Days” plan should never have been published. Talk about tempting fate. It’s full of the kind of Sir Humphrey speak (commission, review, consult, “work with partners”, sustainable) that we’ve gotten used to, and bored with, from Labour. Are they promising more of the same in a different colour?

The Greens do pose an electoral threat this time around. Much like Farage for Reform, even if he isn’t standing for the Senedd, more people will have heard of/seen Zack Polanski through his coverage at the UK level over Rhun ap Iorwerth (who’s going to be a relative unknown amongst people who don’t use Wales-based media that often). 

The party’s candidate selection process means they’re likely to lose at least one highly-regarded/talented MS (Luke Fletcher; possibly Adam Price as well). It’s also clear that they may not have properly vetted some of their candidates positioned lower down the lists, with some skeletons in closets emerging in the last few weeks. 

What would their working relationship be with the UK Government be? Particularly if they don’t enter into a coalition with Labour after the election. It could be frosty. Many of their promises concerning funding and extra powers may never materialise, leaving a gaping hole in their plans….and a let down electorate who might not give them another chance.