They’ve consistently increased their vote share at Senedd elections. In normal circumstances, that would’ve put them on course for a sizable number of seats, but….

It can’t get much worse for them. There are enough true blue believers out there to prevent a post-Clegg Lib Dem-style collapse. Under normal circumstances, you would expect quite a few of their sitting MSs to be re-elected under the new voting system.

The anti-20 mph campaign on social media – led mainly by Conservatives – has been one of the most effective “astroturfing” campaigns in post-devolution Wales. The hypocrisy of senior Tories backing 20 mph during the Fifth Senedd (2016-2021), whilst reported on, doesn’t seem to have resulted in any blowback.

Some of the suggested Tory manifesto commitments around reversing Senedd reform, cutting income tax, and reviving plans for a Newport bypass, could be popular (even if not properly costed).

There are still some effective, if low-key, voices in the Tory Senedd group – notably Sam Kurtz.

They can (to a limited extent) claim to be the “sensible”, experienced, moderating anti-Labour & anti-independence voice over a more reckless and clownish Reform. Though more populist members like Andrew RT Davies are doing their best to spoil it.

The Tories have their feet in both the devolution and anti-devolution camps, and appear to have a lot of (on paper) support from the farming community. They can usually rely on support from rural Wales, the north Wales coast and wealthier suburban areas. So they might indirectly benefit from the new constituencies; if not at this election, then in future ones.

It’s still far too early for them to wash off the stink of their 14 years in power in London. While they’ve probably staved off a Lib Dem-style extinction (as noted), their influence has waned significantly.

Reform copied their homework; their manifestos are suspiciously similar (more on this in the next few weeks).

They’re facing an identity crisis. If they try to “out-Reform Reform”, they’re going to come across as equal parts lunatic and desperate. If they take a softer stance (as they currently are), they’re pointless. The situation facing the Tories is similar to the UUP in Northern Ireland, which was the dominant centre-right Unionist party until voters replaced it with the more hardline DUP.

It’s hard to figure out where their new “We don’t like devolution, but we don’t want to abolish it either” stance sits. It’s not as if there’s a large voter base out there that backs “keep things as they are”, constitutionally. Similarly, backing abolition/direct rule – which certainly has a lot of support amongst the Tory base and some candidates – would be a short-term tactical gain, but a longer-term strategic failure.

Their MSs have a very low profile, and they don’t have a “box office” public face like Nigel Farage. Darren Millar is capable of landing punches in the Senedd as Conservative leader. However, they hardly get any coverage, and they whinge about the coverage they do get. It would come as no surprise to me if many people didn’t realise they have Conservative MSs representing them.

The Conservatives have lost a lot of on-the-ground campaigners over the last five years (particularly county councillors), which will make it much harder for them to run an effective campaign across some of the new constituencies. 

They’ve come up with some attention-grabbing policies, but it all comes across as knee-jerk populism and a list of promises they never intend to keep (what else is new).