Image Source: Elliot Brown via Flickr under Creative Commons Licence BY-SA-2.0
Results Map
Detailed Results Breakdown
| Party | Total Votes | Vote Share | Vote % Change | Total Seats* | Seat Change* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Plaid Cymru | 444,665 | 35.4% | 13.5% | 43 | 18 |
 | Reform UK | 367,988 | 29.3% | 24.5% | 34 | 34 |
 | Labour | 139,203 | 11.1% | -25.3% | 9 | -35 |
 | Conservatives | 134,926 | 10.7% | -12.2% | 7 | -18 |
 | Greens | 84,608 | 6.7% | 2.2% | 2 | 2 |
 | Liberal Democrats | 56,012 | 4.5% | -0.8% | 1 | -1 |
 | Independents | 14,063 | 1.1% | -1.1% | 0 | 0 |
 | Heritage Party | 5,474 | 0.4% | New | 0 | 0 |
 | Propel | 4,032 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0 | 0 |
 | Gwlad | 2,479 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0 | 0 |
 | Open Party | 684 | 0.1% | New | 0 | 0 |
 | Christian Party | 456 | <0.1% | No change | 0 | 0 |
 | Welsh Communist Party | 354 | <0.1% | No change | 0 | 0 |
 | Socialist Labour | 285 | <0.1% | New | 0 | 0 |
 | Monster Raving Loony | 279 | <0.1% | New | 0 | 0 |
 | Trade Union & Socialist Coalition | 244 | <0.1% | No change | 0 | 0 |
 | Social Democratic Party | 165 | <0.1% | New | 0 | 0 |
*Changes are estimated on baseline data from the 2021 Senedd election, adjusted to the 2026 constituencies (J Larner, Wales Governance Centre). They are not a full notional result.
There’ll be detailed “after-action” reports for the main parties coming up over the next week or two. Until then, here’s my immediate take on the election’s winners and losers.
I’ve always believed that Senedd Members overuse the word “historic”, but it’s hard to argue that this election is somehow unworthy of it.
The Winners
Plaid Cymru
Wow. This result is at the very upper end of my most optimistic prediction for Plaid. At an individual constituency level, there are some incredible results (all worth looking at in more detail another time), some of which are in “beyond wildest dreams” territory for the party. An unbelievable performance across the board, which very firmly puts them in minority government territory (more on that later).
Reform UK
They didn’t finish on top, but Reform saw the largest increase in vote share compared to 2021 (where they barely registered at all). As said earlier in the campaign, finishing second with the equivalent of 2 seats in each constituency counts as a good result. On the one hand, they may have expected to have won a few more seats to get to within 1 or 2 seats of Plaid (or even come out as the largest party).
On the other hand, this outcome suits them. They don’t have the experience or competence to run the government. So they can use their position as the lead opposition party to do what they do best: moan, harass, antagonise and grift.
Conservatives
The quiet success story. I said before the election that there are enough Tories out there to ensure they remain a party group and they’ve got over the line; I never believed they would be wiped out or fall to 1 or 2 members. They managed to hold off the challenge of Reform for the 5th and 6th seats in several constituencies despite a sizable drop in their vote share.
It’s also rather ironic that the only reason Andrew RT “Scrap the Senedd’s 36 new members” Davies was re-elected was because of the expansion.
The Senedd’s Legitimacy?
It’s a record turnout for a Senedd election at 52%, with 8 constituencies having turnouts above that. It might be considered a bit funny to describe an election where almost half the electorate didn’t vote as a “win”. Yes, the vote was noticeably lower in the Valleys constituencies (and Fflint Wrecsam) too. But these figures aren’t that far off the turnout in the last UK General Election.
You can argue that devolution couldn’t mature until someone other than Labour could win a Senedd election, either.
The Losers
Labour
A rout. This will be worth a closer look (early next week, hopefully), but this is even worse than the most dire predictions. They have to react quickly because next year’s local elections loom large, and this could get even worse for them. I suppose the only bright side is that there are still a few of the more experienced heads left in their Senedd group, but it’s going to be unfamiliar territory for them.
Eluned Morgan
A sitting head of government losing their seat is a big deal. Although those of us who remember Aneurin Glyndwr are enjoying the schadenfreude at the moment, Eluned took on the role of First Minister in difficult circumstances and never stood a chance.
The Closed-List Voting System
I’ve done some provisional work on this for the detailed post-election reports, but despite using proportional representation, the result isn’t very proportional.
We’ll likely still have this voting system going into the next Senedd election in 2030. Although it seems universally unpopular with everyone now that we’ve seen it in action, I doubt the necessary two-thirds majority can be reached to replace it. I can picture Reform and the Tories (and possibly Labour too) wanting some form of first-past-the-post, while Plaid and the Greens back STV.
Greens
I was sceptical of the polls predicting up to 10 seats for the Greens and thought they would do well to win, at most, 3-4. They got two in the end, though the second looks like it was close. They’re in the Senedd now and have a platform, so it’s not a terrible outcome – but 2 seats will be a very marginal voice in a much bigger chorus.
Coalitions & Government: What's likely to happen?
The deadline for the first meeting of the Seventh Senedd is 28th May, and a First Minister needs to be nominated before 3rd June. If that doesn’t happen, we’ll be going to the polls for another election.
In all likelihood, it’ll be settled before that, as there’s no question that Plaid Cymru “won” even if they don’t have a majority.
So for the next week or so, the parties will begin the process of putting together options for either full coalitions or some form of unofficial agreement (the technical term being “confidence and supply”).
There’s the chance that a First Minister may be nominated before a formal coalition is agreed just to prevent a second snap election. This is what happened in May 2007 when Labour formed a stop-gap minority government before agreeing a full coalition with Plaid Cymru in July (after talks to form a Plaid-Con-Lib Dem “Rainbow Coalition” collapsed).
Here’s my run-through of the potential options based on the result.
The star ratings represent my opinion of how likely the coalition match-up/government is likely to be.
Minority Government
- Plaid Cymru
They have the numbers if they can rely on the support of the progressive parties to make Rhun ap Iorwerth the First Minister. Plaid would have to talk to the other parties to get their budgets through, but they wouldn’t be in a binding coalition.
Confidence & Supply
- Plaid Cymru
- Labour
This would be similar to the cooperation agreement between the two parties in the Sixth Senedd, but with the roles reversed. Labour might be able to get some of its manifesto commitments on the agenda in exchange for budget vote support.
Coalition
- Plaid Cymru
- Labour
This would secure a majority, but Labour are in a particularly weak negotiating position and might want to lick their wounds in opposition and leave Plaid to do the heavy lifting themselves.
Coalition
- Plaid Cymru
- Labour
- Greens
- Lib Dems
Secures an even bigger majority, but it’s unclear what the smaller parties could realistically expect out of it.
Minority Government
- Reform UK
- Conservatives
This takes them over the magic 40-seat figure for a minority government, but it would mean Labour supporting a Reform First Minister, which is very unlikely to say the least.
Coalition
- Reform UK
- Labour
- Conservatives
This would have a majority, but it’s hard to picture this happening unless Labour are genuinely terrified of the “threat” of independence.
Senedd 2026
