Image Source: Google Earth, taken November 2022
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 20.7% | 10th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 76 | 16th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 80.6 | 15th |
| Employment Rate | 65.9% | 15th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 29.7% | 1st |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £729.50 | 5th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 26.0% | 1st |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 19,900 | 16th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 9.8% | 13th |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 35.0% | 9th |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Valleys – Most of the population live in densely-populated valley floors, usually with a single way in and out by road or rail.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Independent (1), Interdependent (8), Dependent (8)
Local Government Political Control
Bridgend (Labour), Neath Port Talbot (Independent–Plaid Cymru coalition), Rhondda Cynon Taf (Labour).
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Huw Irranca-Davies
- Buffy Williams
- David Rees
- Stephanie Grimshaw
- Lisa Pritchard
- Elaine Winstanley
- Dilwar Ali
- Tamasree Mukhopadhyay
Liberal Democrats
- Dean Ronan
- Cen Phillips
- Gerald Francis
- Helen Thomas
- Jim Hehir
- James McGettrick
Conservatives
- Abigail Manion
- Peter Crocker-Jacques
- Tony Kear
- William Martin
- Rachael Astle
- Barbara Jones
Greens
- Nigel Pugh
- Anna Tuhey
- Stephanie Woodhouse
- David Wade
- Abby Rees
- Ellis Thomas
Plaid Cymru
- Sera Evans
- Alun Cox
- Elyn Stephens
- Danny Grehan
- Luned-Mair Barratt
- Wendy Allsop
Reform UK
- Ben McKenna
- Steve Bayliss
- Darren James
- Louise Musgrave
- Catrin Thomas
- Zak Weaver
Independents & Other Parties
Heritage Party
- Kimberly Isherwood
- Logan Jenkins
- Independent: Captain Beany
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans younger than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on cost-of-living, climate change and issues such as housing and childcare. You would expect this to favour parties on the left (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Greens).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is lower than the Welsh average. Lower levels of education have been linked to higher levels of support for populist parties such as Reform UK.
Employment
High levels of economic inactivity may give an advantage to parties that support wealth redistribution (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Greens). It may also boost support for parties seeking a protest vote from a community that’s been “left behind” (Reform UK). This may be cancelled out by the constituency’s high median weekly earnings (perhaps distorted by Port Talbot Steelworks).
Health
Life expectancy is low, but levels of poor health are around the Welsh average. This has traditionally advantaged Labour or any party with health/NHS at the top of its policy platform.
Geographic Make-Up
The Valleys have traditionally been a Labour stronghold (and, to a limited extent, Plaid Cymru in Senedd elections), with the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens noticeably performing poorly. Reform UK performed well in Valley seats at the last UK General Election.
Identity & Language
A low proportion of Welsh-speakers would normally disadvantage Plaid Cymru. However, this is cancelled out by the high levels of Welsh-only identity in the 2021 census. In English-speaking “Welsh Wales” this usually correlates with higher support for pro-devolution parties such as Labour and Plaid Cymru.
Brexit
The area leans towards Leave in the 2016 referendum, which would favour the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1+1
0
2+1
0
2+1
0
0
Expected to win 1 seat. Could win a second if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats. Could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats. Could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
