Image Source: Google Earth (taken October 2022)
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 19.5% | 13th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 76.6 | 14th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 81 | 14th |
| Employment Rate | 69.0% | 14th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 29.0% | 2nd |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £659.90 | 14th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 19.0% | 10th |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 35,400 | 14th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 11.6% | 8th |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 37.0% | 5th |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Valleys – Most of the population live in densely-populated valley floors, usually with a single way in and out by road or rail.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Independent (2), Interdependent (6), Dependent (7)
Local Government Political Control
Merthyr Tydfil (Labour–Independent coalition), Rhondda Cynon Taf (Labour)
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Vikki Howells
- Lloyd Watkins
- Chris Binding
- Mitch Theaker
- Mustapha Maohoub
- Anna Williams-Price
- Jane Gebbie
Liberal Democrats
- Neil Feist
- David Seale
- Alec Dauncey
- Nick Beckett
- Chris Passmore
- Hayden Lewis
Conservatives
- Adam Robinson
- David Jones
- Roxanne Rees
- Lee Davies
- Oliver Morgan
- Jayne McKenna
Greens
- Angela Karadog
- James Bennett
- John Dane
- Georgina Budd
- Zara Siddique
- Jeffrey Baxter
Plaid Cymru
- Heledd Fychan
- Lis McLean
- Sara Crowley
- Ian Gwynne
- Farrell Perks
- Ioan Bellin
Reform UK
- Jason O’Connell
- David Hughes
- Mark Lawrence
- Martin Roberts
- John Ball
- Jamie Loftus
Independents & Other Parties
- Gwlad: Stefan Morgan
- Heritage Party: Julie Lloyd
- Independent: Anthony Biddulph
- Independent: Dai Williams
- Independent: Beth Winter
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans younger than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on cost-of-living, climate change and issues such as housing and childcare. You would expect this to favour parties on the left (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Greens).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is lower than the Welsh average, which could be linked to higher levels of support for populist parties like Reform UK. However, there is a university located in the constituency (University of South Wales), which could offset this a bit and boost support for more policy or youth-focused parties.
Employment
High levels of economic inactivity, and low average pay, may give an advantage to parties that support wealth redistribution (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Greens), as well as parties seeking a protest vote from a community that’s been “left behind” (Reform UK).
Health
Life expectancy is low, and levels of poor health are well above the Welsh average. Disability, welfare, health and social care will be high priorities, depending on how well local services are run. This has traditionally advantaged parties on the left (particularly Labour), but Reform UK have performed well in similar areas in England in recent elections.
Geographic Make-Up
The Valleys have traditionally been a Labour stronghold (and, to a limited extent, Plaid Cymru in Senedd elections), with the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens noticeably performing poorly. Reform UK performed well in Valley seats at the last UK General Election.
Identity & Language
An average proportion of Welsh-speakers, combined with high levels of Welsh-only idenitity in the 2021 census, usually correlates with higher support for pro-devolution parties such as Labour and Plaid Cymru in English-speaking “Welsh Wales”.
Brexit
The area heavily leans towards Leave in the 2016 referendum, which would favour the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1+1
0
2+1
0
2+1
0
0+1
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
(Beth Winter/Independent). Could win a seat if they overperform.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
