Image Source: Hugh Llewelyn via Flickr under Creative Commons Licence BY-SA-2.0
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 20.5% | 12th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 76.6 | 15th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 79.9 | 16th |
| Employment Rate | 71.0% | 13th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 26.6% | 4th |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £668.60 | 12th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 23.0% | 3rd |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 38,100 | 11th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 9.5% | 14th |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 47.0% | 1st |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Valleys – Most of the population live in densely-populated valley floors, usually with a single way in and out by road or rail.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Interdependent (8), Dependent (10)
Local Government Political Control
Blaenau Gwent (Labour), Caerphilly (Labour).
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Alun Davies
- Richard Tunnicliffe
- Keiran Russell
- Sara Beard
- Simon Dancey
- John Pettit
- Hero Marsden
Liberal Democrats
- Steve Aicheler
- David Scullin
- Catherine Dowden-King
- Steve Lloyd
- Ivan Westley
- Juliet Price
Conservatives
- Gareth Potter
- Janet Butler
- John Child
- David West
- Martin Newell
- Fay Bromfield
Greens
- Anne Baker
- Alexis Celnik
- Rachel Roberts
- Hannah Garcia
- Aidan Dempsey
- Jamie Payne
Plaid Cymru
- Delyth Jewell
- Lindsay Whittle
- Niamh Salkeld
- Catrin Moss
- Charlotte Bishop
- Steven Skivens
Reform UK
- Llŷr Powell
- Catherine Cullen
- Joshua Kim
- Johnathan Parker
- Glenda Davies
- Barclay Nickels
Independents & Other Parties
- Heritage Party: Jared Burgess
- Independent: Jordan Brace
- Independent: Mike Whatley
- Independent: Steve Wright
- Open Party: Karen Horan
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans younger than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on cost-of-living, climate change and issues such as housing and childcare. You would expect this to favour parties on the left (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Greens).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is lower than the Welsh average. Lower levels of education have been linked to higher levels of support for populist parties such as Reform UK.
Employment
High levels of economic inactivity may give an advantage to parties that support wealth redistribution (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Greens), as well as parties seeking a protest vote from a community that’s been “left behind” (Reform UK).
Health
Life expectancy is low, and levels of poor health are well above the Welsh average. Disability, welfare, health and social care will be high priorities, depending on how well local services are run. This has traditionally advantaged parties on the left (particularly Labour), but Reform UK have performed well in similar areas in England in recent elections.
Geographic Make-Up
The Valleys have traditionally been a Labour stronghold (and, to a limited extent, Plaid Cymru in Senedd elections), with the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens noticeably performing poorly. Reform UK performed well in Valley seats at the last UK General Election.
Identity & Language
A low proportion of Welsh-speakers would normally disadvantage Plaid Cymru. However, this is cancelled out by the high levels of Welsh-only identity in the 2021 census. In English-speaking “Welsh Wales” this usually correlates with higher support for pro-devolution parties such as Labour and Plaid Cymru. Plaid Cymru has also historically performed well in this area, notably the 2025 Caerphilly by-election.
Brexit
The area leans towards Leave in the 2016 referendum, which would favour the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1+1
0
2+1
0
2+1
0
0
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
