Image Source: Google Earth (taken June 2023)
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 25.9% | 2nd |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 78 | 11th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 82 | 9th |
| Employment Rate | 76.1% | 4th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 21.0% | 13th |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £681.60 | 10th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 19.0% | 7th |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 40,700 | 6th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 18.4% | 5th |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 43.0% | 2nd |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Urban-Rural Mix – The population is split between those living in a few urban areas/large towns, and those living in smaller villages and towns surrounded by countryside.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Independent (5), Interdependent (6), Dependent (2)
Local Government Political Control
Conwy (Ind–Plaid–Lab–Green coalition), Denbighshire, (Labour–Plaid Cymru coalition), Flintshire (Labour–Independent coalition)
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Hannah Blythyn
- Carolyn Thomas
- Crispin Jones
- Ellen Jones
- Raj Metri
- Catherine Claydon
- Arran Fearn
- Cheryl Williams
Liberal Democrats
- David Wilkins
- Bobby Feeley
- Nanette Davies
- Simon Croft
- Jason Higgins
- Keith Kirwan
Conservatives
- Darren Millar
- Gareth Davies
- Gareth Williams
- Justine Evans
- Sylvia Clough-Hughes
- Damon Richards-Gwilliam
- Mike Gebreyohanes
Greens
- Martyn Hogg
- Carly Murdoch-Dyson
- Lucy Sutton
- Karl McNaughton
- David Blainey
- Cheryl Buxton-Sait
Plaid Cymru
- Llŷr Gruffydd
- Becca Martin
- Oli Bradley-Hughes
- Paul Penlington
- Delyth Jones
- Abdul Khan
Reform UK
- Adrian Mason
- Louise Emery
- Thomas Montgomery
- David Smith
- Kristian Salkeld
- Anthony Thomas
Independents & Other Parties
- Heritage Party: Rob Redhead
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans older than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on issues such as energy costs, health, social care and fear of crime. You would expect this to favour parties on the right (Conservatives, Reform UK).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is around the Welsh average, which likely won’t advantage or disadvantage any of the parties.
Employment
Lower than average levels of economic inactivity would likely result in stronger support for more conservative, lower-tax parties, or parties that support stability (Conservatives, Labour). However, the area has median weekly earnings below the Welsh average, which may mask higher levels of in-work poverty.
Health
Although life expectancy is around the Welsh average, the levels of poor health are well above the Welsh average. This has traditionally advantaged Labour or any party with health/NHS at the top of its policy platform. Reform UK have performed well in similar areas in England.
Geographic Make-Up
Most of the population live in larger towns along the coast (such as Colwyn Bay, Rhyl and Prestatyn). Some of these towns have long leant towards the Conservatives, while parts of Rhyl have often topped the list of the most deprived areas of Wales.
Identity & Language
A higher-than-average proportion of Welsh-speakers favours Plaid Cymru. However, the constituency lies within “British Wales”, has long attracted retirees from England, and has historically leaned towards more conservative parties (aka. the “Costa Geriatrica”).
Brexit
The area leans towards Leave in the 2016 referendum, which would favour the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1
1+1
1+1
0
2+1
0
0
Expected to win 1 seat.
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
