Image Source: Google Earth (taken August 2025)
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 25.1% | 5th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 78.7 | 8th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 81.9 | 12th |
| Employment Rate | 72.5% | 10th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 23.5% | 9th |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £657.70 | 15th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 17.0% | 13th |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 38,800 | 10th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 39.9% | 3rd |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 38.0% | 4th |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Urban-Rural Mix – The population is split between those living in a few urban areas/large towns, and those living in smaller villages and towns surrounded by countryside.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Independent (2), Interdependent (5), Dependent (8)
Local Government Political Control
Carmarthenshire (Plaid Cymru–Independent coalition)
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Calum Higgins
- Dawn Evans
- Martyn Palfreman
- David Darkin
- Lewis Davies
- Andre McPherson
Liberal Democrats
- Justin Griffiths
- Julian Tandy
- Jonathan Buree
- Lynne Wilkins
- Monica French
- Caryl Tandy
Conservatives
- Richard Williams
- Lee Stabbins
- Oliver Wilson
- Bradley Williams
- Natasha Rowlands
- Ben Sansome
Greens
- Rob James
- Nicholas Pearce
- Steven Davies
- David Lishman
- Helen Draper
- Michael Willis
Plaid Cymru
- Cefin Campbell
- Nerys Evans
- Adam Price
- Mari Arthur
- Iwan Griffiths
- Abi Thomas
- Taylor Reynolds
- Jordan Griffiths
Reform UK
- Gareth Beer
- Carmelo Colsanto
- Sarah Edwards
- Christopher Brooks
- Alan Cole
- Michelle Beer
Independents & Other Parties
- Gwlad: Wayne Erasmus
- Heritage Party: Jason Baker
- Independent: Carl Peters-Bond
- Independent: Jonathan Rose
- Independent: Stephen Williams
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans older than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on issues such as energy costs, health, social care and fear of crime. You would expect this to favour parties on the right (Conservatives, Reform UK).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is lower than the Welsh average. Lower levels of education have been linked to higher levels of support for populist parties such as Reform UK. This is offset somewhat by below average proportions of people with no qualifications.
Employment
Average levels of economic inactivity are unlikely to correlate with support for any particular party, or would lean towards support for keeping things as they are.
Health
Life expectancy is around the Welsh average, however this is offset by high levels of limiting poor health. Disability, welfare, health and social care will be high priorities, depending on how well local services are run. This has traditionally advantaged parties on the left (particularly Labour), but Reform UK have performed well in similar areas in England in recent elections.
Geographic Make-Up
Labour has traditionally performed strongly in the more urbanised part of the constituency around Llanelli, while Plaid Cymru has traditionally dominated the more rural inland areas. The Conservatives and Reform UK have enjoyed strong localised support in the recent past.
Identity & Language
A very high proportion of Welsh-speakers heavily favours Plaid Cymru. The constituency mostly lies within highly Welsh-only identifying and Welsh-speaking areas, which again would tend to favour Plaid Cymru.
Brexit
The area leans towards Leave in the 2016 referendum, which would favour the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1+1
0+1
2+1
0
2+1
0
0
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Could win a seat if they overperform.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
