In the last couple of days, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council agreed to a joint statement (pdf) – the first of its kind, apparently – agreeing that nuclear war is unwinnable and should never be fought, as well as renewing commitments to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.
The statement is unlikely to do much to dampen tensions between NATO and Russia over Ukraine (and what Russia considers to be interference by the western powers in its “sphere of influence”) and the emerging threat of hypersonic missiles. It does, however, suggest that we’re not quite back to where we were during the peak of the Cold War.
Within living memory, the threat of a nuclear war sparked by tensions in central and eastern Europe was a very real possibility. It’s something governments actively prepared for – some more thoroughly than others. What follows is an idea of what would’ve happened in the UK and (by extension) Wales.
In nearly all scenarios planned for by the UK Government and NATO, a nuclear attack was expected after a period of international tension or a short conventional war in Europe.
An unexpected nuclear attack was seemingly not on the table even though there are several incidents where drills, civilian rockets and alike have been misinterpreted as attacks. The most famous example was in September 1983 when sunlight triggered the Soviet Union’s missile warning system at the same time NATO was undertaking Exercise Able Archer.
At first, you wouldn’t notice anything. It’ll all be happening behind the scenes as part of “Transition to War” preparations – largely led at county level, with each county council having their own War Book setting out what to do and when.
Some journalists will seek off-the-record comments on the “growing international crisis”, but politicians wouldn’t want to cause unnecessary panic in the hope that a conflict could still be averted.
The message would be to “Keep Calm and Carry On”. Schools would stay open and people will be expected to go to work as normal even as the news on tensions between east and west becomes increasingly grim.
The move from peacetime to a war footing would be relatively quick, triggered either by the use of small scale tactical nuclear weapons, the issuing of an ultimatum, or a move by NATO to put forces on a heightened state of alert. The UK Parliament may not even have had a say in it as the necessary pre-prepared emergency regulations could be approved by decree.
Once that happens, you’ll start to see travel and public assembly restrictions, commandeering of transport by the military and police, school and university closures, restrictions on telephone use, price and wage controls and restrictions on non-essential industries.
It’s well known that a sizable proportion of the UK’s cultural artefacts – art, museum pieces, other valuables – would’ve been moved to Wales. Some of the places said to have been selected to house the pieces include the former Manod slate quarry near Blaenau Ffestiniog (which was used during the Second World War) and the Rhydymwyn Works near Wrexham.
