In the last couple of days, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council agreed to a joint statement (pdf) – the first of its kind, apparently – agreeing that nuclear war is unwinnable and should never be fought, as well as renewing commitments to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.
The statement is unlikely to do much to dampen tensions between NATO and Russia over Ukraine (and what Russia considers to be interference by the western powers in its “sphere of influence”) and the emerging threat of hypersonic missiles. It does, however, suggest that we’re not quite back to where we were during the peak of the Cold War.
Within living memory, the threat of a nuclear war sparked by tensions in central and eastern Europe was a very real possibility. It’s something governments actively prepared for – some more thoroughly than others. What follows is an idea of what would’ve happened in the UK and (by extension) Wales.
The responsibility for confirming and monitoring an attack lay with the UK Warning & Monitoring Organisation (UNWMO), which was controlled by the UK Home Office.
By the 1980s, an attack would probably come in the form of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) launched from underground silos in Russia, mobile missile launchers in the Warsaw Pact states and Soviet submarines. Traditionally, the UK would have a warning of at least 4 minutes (the time left after an attack has been properly confirmed which could take up to 10-15 minutes), but in some circumstances it could be less than that – a launch from a submarine in the North Sea for example.
Any launch would be picked up by the monitoring station at RAF Fylingdales in Yorkshire and US Air Force detectors.
The warning system technology called HANDEL – created and installed by BT – would be used to transmit the warning to carrier control points (usually police stations and other public buildings like hospitals), who would, in turn, pass on the warning (“Attack Warning Red”) to operators of hand sirens and/or trigger automatic sirens. The BBC/Wartime Broadcasting Service would also issue a warning on the radio (and presumably TV if an attack happens before the WBS comes into service).
Although there are still some audio sirens around – namely for flooding or high-security prisons and hospitals – the UK air raid siren network has been dismantled both due to the cost of maintaining and replacing it and the widespread use of double glazing.
The 1980 UK Government exercise Square Leg implied that Wales would probably get off lightly, with military targets in Wales being the top priority (mainly RAF bases) and Cardiff and Swansea (it looks like Port Talbot too) being the only major population centres targeted.
In reality, it’s likely the Warsaw Pact would’ve targeted any centre of energy, industry or communication to cripple recovery and rebuildings efforts. That would likely put Newport, Milford Haven & Pembroke Dock, the Deeside area and – given they were still industrial areas at the time – Ebbw Vale (steelmaking) and the Rhondda (coal) in the frame.
It’s unclear what sort of protection the valleys and mountainous areas would’ve given from the blast effects – depending on the altitude and location of the explosion.
Valleys could offer some shelter from line-of-sight effects and could temporarily dampen the effect of the blast wave if there’s enough mountain or hill between you and the explosion.
Equally, if the explosion is coming from the wrong direction it could channel the blast in such a way as to give it more destructive force such as by reflecting some of the blasts into a valley.
