Image Source: House of Lords Library, under Open Parliament Licence
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What Happens Now?
Wales – along with the rest of the UK – left the European Union (EU) in January 2020 following the 2016 referendum. At that referendum, Wales voted by 52.5% to 47.5% to “Leave” the EU.
Since then, the UK has negotiated (with some difficulty) a trading agreement with the EU. The agreement will be reviewed every five years, with the first review set to take place during 2026. A “reset” was agreed between the UK and EU in May 2025.
So right now, Wales is outside of both the Single Market and EU.
Does This Work for Wales?
Trade figures suggest that Brexit hasn’t impacted trade in goods between Wales and the EU that much, with the value of goods exported and imported remaining relatively steady both before and after Brexit1.
However, there have been other noticeable impacts from Brexit – a process led almost entirely by the UK Government – elsewhere.
Adding the loss of funding towards rural support schemes, the Welsh Government estimated that Brexit has cost Wales £1.1 billion in funding as of 2022. EU economic development funding was lost at the end of 2023.
It’s replacement – the UK Government’s “Shared Prosperity Fund” – was estimated to be worth £775 million less than its EU equivalent in 20222. The formula used to work out how much each local authority would receive was criticised for not taking populations into account3.
Wales Joining the EU: Pros & Cons
Welsh businesses would have full and free access to the European Single Market (EEA), as well as all Welsh citizens having a right to free movement of people, goods, services and money.
Wales would become a party to the EU’s free trade deals.
Wales would have far more say at EU level than we did when the UK was an EU member state. This would include electing more MEPs, appointing a Welsh EU Commissioner and a Welsh seat at the top decision-making tables (European Council).
Wales would have access to EU economic development and investment funding – as well as farm payments – which were lost after Brexit (and have yet to be fully replaced). Before Brexit, Cardiff University economists estimated that Wales received £245 million more back from the EU each year than we paid in4.
Free movement between Wales and England would still be in place because of the Common Travel Area. Wales also doesn’t need to join the Schengen Area (the passport-free travel area on mainland Europe).
It could boost investment and provide stronger protections and rights for customers.
It may smooth over potentially joining the eurozone (if that’s what we decide is the best currency option for Wales). This may mean the Welsh Government acting more responsibly towards the country’s finances.
Wales wouldn’t be able to rejoin the EU instantly – it could take several years (more on this later).
Unless there was another referendum to confirm rejoining the EU, it would overturn the 2016 referendum result. Also, what would happen if Wales votes to reject joining the EU after negotiations have ended?
Wales does more trade with the rest of the UK (£26.2 billion worth of imports and exports in 2019-205) than we do with the EU (£18.4 billion in 2023-246). If Wales joined the EU and England stayed out, it would mean a custom checks and declarations on goods moved between Wales and England.
Would retaining the pound as a currency cause problems? Would we need our own currency and central bank before even thinking of joining the EU to meet certain membership criteria?
Wales would find it very hard to negotiate a rebate on what we pay into the EU budget similar to what Margaret Thatcher negotiated for the the UK. This would mean that EU membership could cost Wales more than it did when the UK was a member.
Wales would have to give up control over trade policy and would have to follow EU rules and regulations in many policy areas. The EU can and does put pressure on member countries to keep public spending under control.
Wales would be opening up our job market fully to EU and EEA citizens.
Wales would need to allow full access to Welsh fishing waters to EU vessels under the Common Fisheries Policy – which may be unpopular with the Welsh fishing fleet.
Any free trade deals negotiated by the UK Government since Brexit would no longer apply to Wales. For example, the UK Government could sign a full free trade agreement with the United States (an important export market for Welsh goods as things stand) while the EU has, to date, failed to do so.
What Do Other Countries Do?
The EU’s most recent member, having joined the EU in 2013. Negotiations on membership began in 2003 and finished in 2012 with a referendum in Croatia approving EU membership. In 2023, Croatia joined the Schengen Area, removing border controls with the other 28 Schengen Area countries and also adopted the euro as its currency.
Currently a candidate for EU membership and is in negotiations. Montenegro’s application for EU membership was submitted in 2005. Along with all of the remaining non-EU former Yugoslav states (and Albania) it’s currently in a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU7 which will give the countries enough time to meet the EU’s legal, economic and social requirements in exchange for financial assistance.
Is currently in a customs union with the EU, but negotiations on membership have been on-off since 1987. This is mainly down to Turkey not making enough progress to meet the standards needed for membership.
There are also concerns within the EU about Turkey’s large Muslim population (the “threat” of free movement was used by the Leave campaign in 2016), civil liberties and its policy towards Cyprus. A full free trade agreement is more likely.
How would an independent Wales join the EU?
Yes. An independent Wales should meet the criteria for EU membership8. This includes being a “European country”, protecting people’s rights, the rule of law and having a market economy.
Wales would have to submit a formal application for EU membership. The European Council (made up of heads of government of EU member states) would then decide if the application is allowed.
If the application is accepted, Wales would become a candidate country. Negotiations would then start. Wales will be judged on 35 separate membership terms and conditions, called “Chapters”9. These “Chapters” cover the economy, civil rights, statistics, science policy, cultural policy and good governance.
A country can’t join the EU until all 35 Chapters are “closed”. A chapter is “closed” if Wales meets the requirements, or has made reforms in order to do so. Each government of EU member states also has to agree that Wales meets the requirements of each Chapter before they can be closed.
Once all Chapters are “closed”, a treaty for Wales to join the EU would be drafted. This treaty will need the support of the European Council, European Parliament and European Commission. It’ll then need to be signed and ratified/approved by all of the EU member states individually.
The Senedd may decide to hold a referendum on EU membership at this point, but it’s not a requirement.
The treaty will set a date at which Wales would join the EU, but until then we would have “observer status” and can take part in meetings without being able to vote.
What's at Stake?
The overall score (out of 20) is the total of the scores for the four mini-categories (out of 5 each).
How Would This Be Run?
There are other EU bodies and agencies, but the three most important ones are the EU Parliament, Commission and Council.
Each EU member state elects a set number of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) based on their population. MEPs are responsible for making EU laws/regulations and setting the EU’s budget.
The total number of MEPs is capped at 751. An independent Wales would likely elect between 8-10 MEPs after the number of MEPs per country is re-calculated (Wales only elected 4 MEPs when the UK was an EU member).
All MEPs have to be elected by proportional representation, but Wales would decide what electoral system to use and whether MEPs would be from an all-Wales list or would represent regions/constituencies.
The European Commission is responsible for the day-to-day running of the EU and acts as a mix of a government and civil service.
As a full EU member, Wales would put someone forward as an EU Commissioner. That Commissioner would be given a policy responsibility (much like a Cabinet minister in the Welsh or UK Governments).
The Welsh First/Prime Minister would sit on the European Council. They would help set the EU’s policies.
The Presidency of the European Council rotates amongst member states every 6 months, so Wales would hold the presidency at some point. That would mean setting the agenda and leading negotiations – but it would be time consuming and may distract from the day job.
How Much Will This Cost?
Headline: Up to £851 million per year, but we would get a lot back (perhaps even all of it, or more than we pay in) through EU funded programmes and economic growth.
Wales would make a yearly contribution to the EU’s budget.
This would be based on customs duties (on imports from outside the EU), a share of VAT and a set figure based on the size of Wales’ economy within the EU. In 2014, Wales’ contribution to the EU budget was estimated to be £625 million4 (before the UK’s rebate). At 2025 prices that would be around £851 million.
Wales would, however, receive some of this money back through farm payments, economic development funding and funding from other EU programmes. So the amount we get back may match what we pay in.
A national referendum on joining the EU would cost at least £4.6 million10.
Would any new taxes need to be introduced?
No, but we would have to set VAT rates to match those of the EU.
Who will pay for this?
Based on how the EU budget is paid for: importers, anyone buying anything with added VAT and general taxpayer funding.
How Long Would This Take?
This will need the Senedd’s approval.
When Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 the process took about 2 months. This was from a request to apply for EU membership in the Icelandic Parliament to the application being accepted by the European Council. For Croatia it took a little over a year.
It’ll take however long it takes. For the 1995 intake (Austria, Sweden, Finland) the time between their applications being submitted and negotiations ending was 2-3 years. For the 2004 enlargement, it took around 4 years. Croatia’s membership negotiations took the best part of 6 years.
Wales would likely be towards the lower end of this (2-3 years) given we’re used to applying EU rules so know what’s expected of us.
The time between negotiations ending and joining the EU ranges from 9 months to 18 months (based on the 1995, 2004 and 2013 enlargements). An accession treaty between Wales and the EU would be signed at some point during this period.
A referendum on joining the EU is optional, but would be a good idea to ensure it has the Welsh public’s support.
People & Work
Everyone resident in Wales.
It depends on the performance of the economy, but free movement would make it easier for Welsh citizens to find work in other EU member states. It may also make Wales more attractive for investment from EU companies.
There would be a some official jobs created for Welsh representatives at EU institutions (i.e. support staff for Welsh MEPs, Welsh EU administrators in Wales and Brussels, EU courts).
You Might Also Like....
Welsh Government Statistics (17th April 2024). “Welsh international goods trade: 2023”.
Welsh Government (4th May 2022). “Written Statement: Loss of funding to Wales as a result of the UK Government’s arrangements for replacement EU funding”.
Phillips, D. Institute for Fiscal Studies (18th July 2022). “UK Shared Prosperity Fund allocations for Welsh councils are flawed, costing some areas millions”.
G Ifan, RW Jones, EG Poole (May 2016). “Estimating Wales’s Net Contribution to the European Union” (p 6-7).
Office of National Statistics (10th February 2025). Interregional trade in goods and services, UK: 2019 and 2020.
Welsh Government (12th September 2024). “Welsh international goods trade: June 2023 to June 2024).
European Union Law, “Stabilisation & association process”.
Treaty on European Union (1992), Article 49.
European Commission. “Conditions for membership, Chapters of the acquis”.
Electoral Commission. “Report: The costs of delivering the June 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union”. Counting officers’ data, Wales.
No AI tools were used to draft this post.
