Image Source: Google Earth (taken August 2024)
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 24.2% | 6th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 79.1 | 5th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 82.2 | 8th |
| Employment Rate | 72.4% | 11th |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 26.3% | 5th |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £664.30 | 13th |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 18.0% | 12th |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 40,100 | 7th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 14.8% | 6th |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 35.0% | 8th |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Urban-Rural Mix – The population is split between those living in a few urban areas/large towns, and those living in smaller villages and towns surrounded by countryside.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Independent (2), Interdependent (6), Dependent (2)
Local Government Political Control
Neath Port Talbot (Independent–Plaid Cymru coalition), Powys (Liberal Democrat–Labour coalition), Swansea (Labour)
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Mahaboob Basha
- Alex Sims
- Sarah Thomas
- Elliot Wigfall
- Cyriac George
- Chelsea Edwards
- Morgan Pritchard
Liberal Democrats
- Jane Dodds
- Jackie Charlton
- Phoebe Jenkins
- William Lloyd
- Peter Chapman
- Dylan Calved
Conservatives
- Tyler Chambers
- Elizabeth Hill-O’Shea
- Jane Lyons
- Matthew Gilbert
- Hannah Jarvis
- Amanda Davies
Greens
- Nathan Goldup-John
- Charlotte Ajomale-Evans
- Ami Dhaliwal
- Eric Rosoman Matthews
- Kathy Oakwood
- Imogen da Silva
Plaid Cymru
- Sioned Williams
- Rebeca Phillips
- Andrew Jenkins
- Justin Horrell
- Kate Heneghan
- Chris Williams
Reform UK
- James Evans
- Iain McIntosh
- David Mills
- Moira Charles
- Dewi Thomas
- Celfyn Furlong
Independents & Other Parties
Christian Party
- Jeff Green
- Sue Green
- Gwlad: Philip Owen
- Heritage Party: Jennifer Roberts
- Independent: Beverley Baynham
- Independent: Joe Hale
- Independent: Dai Richards
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans older than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on issues such as energy costs, health, social care and fear of crime. You would expect this to favour parties on the right (Conservatives, Reform UK).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is around the Welsh average, which likely won’t advantage or disadvantage any of the parties. Those with no qualifications are also lower than the Welsh average, disadvantaging Reform UK.
Employment
High levels of economic inactivity may give an advantage to parties that support wealth redistribution (Labour, Plaid Cymru, Greens), as well as parties seeking a protest vote from a community that’s been “left behind” (Reform UK). The constituency also has median weekly earnings below the Welsh average, which may mask higher levels of in-work poverty.
Health
The population is generally healthier than the Welsh average. However, the older age profile may mean that health and social care remain as high a priority as they would be in areas with poorer health.
Geographic Make-Up
Large rural areas tend to advantage parties with a stronger focus on farming, affordable local housing, energy (both for and against) and tourism, such as the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. The Lib Dems have often performed well in the Powys part of the constituency. The urban part of the constituency (Neath and Swansea valleys) have historically supported Labour (constituency) and Plaid Cymru (regional vote) in Senedd elections.
Identity & Language
A relatively high proportion of Welsh-speakers favours Plaid Cymru. The area isn’t exclusively Welsh-identifying as the northern part of the constituency (Brecon & Radnor) has traditionally fallen under “British Wales” – which may favour pro-Union parties such as the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Reform and Labour.
Brexit
The area leans towards Leave in the 2016 referendum, which would favour the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1
1
1+1
1+1
1+1
0
0
Expected to win 1 seat.
Expected to win 1 seat.
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
