Image Source: Google Earth (taken April 2025)
Map data from OpenStreetMap under Open Data Commons Open Database Licence. Senedd constituency borders provided by DataMapWales under Crown Copyright.
Data Overview
| Measure | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| % population aged 65 or over | 23.9% | 7th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Male) | 79 | 6th |
| Average Life Expectency at Birth (Female) | 83.1 | 3rd |
| Employment Rate | 76.5% | 3rd |
| Economic Inactivity Rate | 22.1% | 12th |
| Median Weekly Earnings | £737.90 | 1st |
| % of Secondary school pupils entitled to free school meals | 18.0% | 11th |
| People employed by businesses headquartered in this constituency | 39,200 | 9th |
| % population aged 3 and over who can speak Welsh | 8.5% | 15th |
| Adult population with a limiting long-term illness | 37.0% | 6th |
*Constituencies are ranked from 1 to 16 based on Senedd Cymru constituency data.
Source: Welsh Government, Data for the Senedd Constituency Areas (28th January 2026). https://www.gov.wales/data-senedd-cymru-constituency-areas-2026
Geographic Profile
Urban-Rural Mix – The population is split between those living in a few urban areas/large towns, and those living in smaller villages and towns surrounded by countryside.
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Settlement Profiles
Scroll to the notes section for a full explanation.
Indpendent (1), Interdependent (7), Dependent (3)
Local Government Political Control
Monmouthshire (Labour–Green–Independent coalition), Torfaen (Labour)
Candidates
Confirmed as of 09/04/2026
Unlike previous Senedd elections, you will have one vote (for a party, not a candidate) and one ballot paper at this election. A full explanation of how the new new voting system works is avalable in the video to the left.
Candidates will be elected in the order they appear on their party lists. Sitting MSs seeking re-election are in italics.
If you can view this correctly (desktop/landscape view), the six parties expected to win seats are are listed from left to right. Firstly, by the number of seats they won at the 2021 Senedd election; secondly, by the number of votes they received at the 2021 Senedd election. Click on the mini party logos below to open/close the drop down tab.
Labour
- Lynne Neagle
- Anthony Hunt
- Laura Wright
- Catrin Maby
- Ben Callard
- Nick Byrne
- Su McConnel
Liberal Democrats
- Kevin Wilkins
- Brendan Roberts
- Vicky Hepburn-Jones
- Anthea Dewhurst
- Martin Sutherland
- Iwan Thomas
Conservatives
- Peter Fox
- Richard John
- Lisa Dymock
- Nathan Edmunds
- Rachel Buckler
- Chase Blount
Greens
- Ian Chandler
- Emily Williams
- Charlie Aldous
- Lauren Sellers
- Darren Share
- Angus Paget
Plaid Cymru
- Matthew Jones
- Donna Cushing
- Jayne Israel
- David Johnson
- Loti Glyn
- Huw Evans
Reform UK
- Laura Anne Jones
- Stephen Senior
- Bob Blacker
- David Rowlands
- Mark Urrutia
- Gerald Hancock
Independents & Other Parties
- Gwlad: Brad Williams
- Heritage Party: Emma Meredith
- Independent: Owen Lewis
- Independent: Welsh Pool
Open Party
- Joseph Nicholson
- David Atkins
Favourability
Demographics
The population in this constituency leans older than the Welsh average, which is likely to favour parties focused on issues such as energy costs, health, social care and fear of crime. You would expect this to favour parties on the right (Conservatives, Reform UK).
Education
The proportion of people with Level 4 (the equivalent of the first year of university) qualifications is higher than the Welsh average. This could boost support for parties with a “big ideas” mindset, such as the Greens and Lib Dems.
Employment
Lower than average levels of economic inactivity would likely result in stronger support for more conservative, lower-tax parties, or parties that support stability (Conservatives, Labour). High average earnings are also likely to lead to greater support for parties that want to keep things as they are.
Health
The population is generally healthier than the Welsh average. However, the older age profile may mean that health and social care remain as high a priority as they would be in areas with poorer health.
Geographic Make-Up
Labour has traditionally performed strongly in Torfaen, while the Conservatives have (until recently) been the main political force in Monmouthshire.
Identity & Language
A below average proportion of Welsh-speakers would normally disadvantage Plaid Cymru. There is a lot of cross-border commuting in the constituency and, while Welsh identity is certainly strong, it has historically been within “British Wales” – which may favour more conservative and pro-Union parties.
Brexit
The area is equally split between Leave-supporting Torfaen and (narrowly) Remain-supporting Monmouthshire.
Election Ratings
- Labour
- Conservatives
- Plaid Cymru
- Liberal Democrats
- Reform UK
- Greens
- Others
1+1
1+1
1
0
2+1
0
0
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Expected to win 1 seat, could win a second if they overperform.
Expected to win 1 seat.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Expected to win 2 seats, could win a third if they overperform.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Unlikely to win a seat.
Notes
WISERD Understanding Welsh Places Model (link)
Independent – An independent place (including the independent to interdependent category) has many important things such as hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It also has a mix of different kinds of jobs. People living there can easily go to work or use services nearby, and people from other communities go there too. Constituencies with a large number of independent places are likely to have stronger local economies and act as important regional centres.
Dependent – A dependent (including the dependent to interdependent category) place has fewer important things like hospitals, businesses, and community facilities. It may rely on one kind of job or a single major employer. People living here are more likely to commute out of the community to work or to use services. Constituencies with a large number of dependent places are reliant on services provided in other communities.
Interdependent – An interdependent (including the interdependent to independent and interdependent to dependent categories) place is somewhere in between independent and dependent places. It has a mix of important facilities and services, but not as many as an independent place. Residents will equally commute to other settlements to work, as well as work locally. Constituencies with a large number of interdependent places are likely to have a mix of dormitory towns/villages and important local centres (i.e. industrial estates, retail parks, general hospitals).
Senedd 2026
