The penultimate part of this look at the 2021 census focuses on the home. This includes marital status, tenure and access to private vehicles.
Another reminder of the ground rules/method:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
What’s the overall national picture?
The clear majority of households in Wales (66.4%) are either homeowners or on their way to being so. This is higher than in England (62.3%).
However, there’s been a steady decline in homeownership over the last 20 years, with homeownership and mortgage lending rates falling by 1.4% since 2011 and 4.6% since 2001.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The figures are remarkably similar across all local authorities, with most council areas having a rate of between 66-70% homeownership or mortgage lending.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, rates are lowest in Cardiff (58.3%) and have fallen by 11.5% since 2001 – the sharpest decline anywhere in Wales by some distance.
Since 2001, home ownership and mortgage lending rates have also fallen significantly in Swansea (-7.0%), Newport (-6.8%) and Bridgend (-6.3%). Only Ceredigion has seen an increase (+1.0%) and that’s happened since 2011. Gwynedd saw no change since 2011.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
House prices put homeownership beyond the reach of most average-earning workers, but house prices are generally lower than in England making them proportionally more affordable if you’re earning a decent income.
It’s not uncommon for new builds to sell for £250,000+. Since the Great Recession, banks may have (for a few years at least) taken fewer risks when lending.
Given the stats earlier around marital status, there may be fewer two-income households too.
Are there any public policy implications?
On the surface of it, most developers and politicians would look at the figures on homeownership and mortgage lending and wonder where the problem is or even hail it as a success.
We’re still building too many of the wrong types of dwellings. Far too many 3 and 4-bed executive homes are being built when what Wales needs are smaller 2-bedroom starter homes and 1 and 2-bedroom apartments.
