The penultimate part of this look at the 2021 census focuses on the home. This includes marital status, tenure and access to private vehicles.
Another reminder of the ground rules/method:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
What’s the overall national picture?
While there’s been a decline in the proportion of socially rented tenures since 2001 (-1.7%), there was a slight all-Wales increase over the last decade (+0.1%).
The proportion of households with a social tenure in Wales in 2021 (16.5%) is marginally lower than the EnglandandWales average (17.1%) which, given lower incomes in Wales, is a surprise.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
The national increase has been primarily driven by increased social tenants in Merthyr Tydfil, across the north, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire.
Some areas have seen substantial declines since 2001 including Wrexham and Blaenau Gwent (both -5.2%), Carmarthenshire (-2.9%), Caerphilly and Torfaen (both -2.6%).
Although Cardiff is one the few local authorities to have started to build their own council housing, it’s barely moved the dial there with just a 0.3 percentage point increase in social tenants since 2001.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
The lack of available social housing may be forcing some households that would otherwise have applied for council housing in past decades (pre-right-to-buy) into the private rental market.
As mentioned, some local authorities have started to build their own council (owned) housing to replenish existing stocks, but it’s clear that housing associations – I think there are 30+ active in Wales – haven’t done anywhere near enough to do the same.
Are there any public policy implications?
I’m sure some will look at the increases since 2011 and be ready to pat each other on the back at a job well done when it’s pretty disgraceful.
A 0.1% increase in social tenancies in ten years is embarrassing. I don’t think we should be shocked at increased homelessness and rough sleeping if that’s how things have panned out.
It’ll probably take a few years to determine whether the Senedd’s ban on the “right to buy” will have an impact, though you would expect the proportion of social tenants to increase more substantially than 0.1 percentage points by the next census.
Underpinning it all is a failure of housing associations and the Welsh Government to invest in enough new social housing to meet demand, leaving some lower-income households no alternative but to prop up the private rental sector.
