The penultimate part of this look at the 2021 census focuses on the home. This includes marital status, tenure and access to private vehicles.
Another reminder of the ground rules/method:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
What’s the overall national picture?
Out of all of these sections, the most dramatic change is the exponential growth in the proportion of households with 2 or more private cars and vans.
Since 2011 it’s increased nationally by 4.7%. However, since 2001 it’s increased by 10.3%.
There are now almost twice as many multi-vehicle households in Wales (38.8%) than households with no private vehicles (18.8%). 41.1% of households have access to a single vehicle in 2021, but even that’s fallen by 3.8% since 2001.
On current trends, most households in Wales will have access to 2 or more vehicles by the time of the next census.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
Almost everywhere has seen rapid growth in multi-vehicle households since 2001 and it’s mainly driven (excuse the pun) by local authorities along the M4 corridor and valleys including Blaenau Gwent (+14.9%), Neath Port Talbot (+13.5%), Merthyr Tydfil (+12.9%), Rhondda Cynon Taf (+12.5%) and Bridgend (+12.4%).
Only 9 local authorities have had a single figure percentage point increase since 2001 and only Cardiff (+5.0%) and Vale of Glamorgan (+7.8%) have kept it to below an 8 percentage point increase.
Monmouthshire (48.8%) comes closest to having a majority of households having access to multiple vehicles, though Flintshire and Powys are over 45%.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
You would expect vehicle ownership rates to be higher in rural areas for practical reasons – namely there being no other serious alternative to get around.
The only local authorities with relatively low levels of multi-vehicle households – such as Cardiff and Swansea – have regular local bus services, while Cardiff has the densest urban rail network in the country. So in those cases there are at least some viable alternatives to driving.
Either way, all indications are that once households get a car they rarely give it up or are more likely to add extra vehicles to it.
There’s also likely to have been an increase in multi-generational households where adult children living with parents have their own vehicle. As mentioned earlier, it’s often an unofficial job requirement in Wales to have access to a car.
Many people – even in urban areas – simply can’t rely on public transport for daily life because it often means fitting your routine around a timetable, not the other way around – often unreliably or at great expense.
Are there any public policy implications?
It’ll make depressing reading for advocates of both the environment and public transport.
Policy proposals that affect drivers often meet a significant backlash, as we’ve seen following the Welsh Government’s Roads Review and the future introduction of a default 20mph limit in September 2023. Given the numbers involved it’s understandable why that happens even if there’s an element of selfishness to it.
It also underlines the long road ahead – and the high bill – to convert to zero-carbon private transport. Almost all of those extra vehicles will need to be replaced at some point. Even if there was a mass switch to electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles, the problem of traffic congestion and poor roads would remain.
In some urban areas, there’s increasingly less and less room for cars. I doubt I’m the only person living on a street designed for one vehicle per household at most but where most households now have two cars and maybe a works vehicle on top of it. On the other hand, newer developments are often built with multi-vehicle households in mind and just perpetuate it.
Are there glimmers of hope? Fewer people are learning to drive than previous generations and as running a car gets more expensive (or we simply run out of room), car ownership rates may tail off.
