The penultimate part of this look at the 2021 census focuses on the home. This includes marital status, tenure and access to private vehicles.
Another reminder of the ground rules/method:
- The figures will be counted at council level (the 22 unitary authorities). There are probably more interesting results at a local level/ward level, but that’s not for me to do. You can look these up yourselves using the ONS’s interactive map.
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest decimal place and changes are percentage point increases or decreases (unless stated otherwise).
- 2021 will be compared to both the 2011 and 2001 censuses unless comparable figures are unavailable (i.e. things were counted differently in 2021 compared to previous years) or I couldn’t find the data for whatever reason. In some instances, there won’t be a comparison because it’s a new category.
- Any conclusions are educated guesses rather than hard/academically rigorous ones.
What’s the overall national picture?
17.1% of households rent privately.
The proportion of private tenants hasn’t changed much since 2011 (+1.3%). Most of the growth – demonstrated above – occurred between 2001-2011, which is probably the peak of the “buy-to-let” craze.
So growth in private tenancies has seemingly slowed over the last 10 years but is still significantly up (+6.8%) on 2001.
What are the standout findings for individual councils?
There are three areas where private tenants make up a proportionally larger chunk of households: Cardiff (24.6%), Ceredigion (20.7%) and Denbighshire (20.2%). Mirroring the decline in homeownership, Cardiff has seen the sharpest increase in private tenancies since 2001 (+11.4%).
Perhaps surprisingly, private tenants make up a proportionally lower share of tenures in the eastern valleys – Torfaen (11.3%), Caerphilly (13.4%) and Merthyr Tydfil (15.3%). As you’ll see later, there are proportionally more social renters here compared to the rest of Wales.
There has been a noticeable decline in the proportion of private tenants in the northwest over the last 10 years too, going against the national trend.
What may be the reasons behind the changes (if applicable)?
As mentioned, most of the growth between 2001-2011 could’ve been down to the buy-to-let craze, then hitting a slowdown due to lenders getting cold feet post-recession.
Private tenancy rates in the valleys could be down to lower property values, meaning some people looking for their first home might be able to buy a home straight away instead of renting first.
Cardiff and Ceredigion’s proportionally higher figures may be driven by universities; Denbighshire possibly by relatively cheap bedsits in places like Rhyl.
The seeming slowdown in growth could be down to increase regulation of the private rental sector in Wales too – resulting in fewer private landlords entering the market and more landlords leaving the sector in the last few years.
Are there any public policy implications?
Homeownership still seems to be the main housing goal for many, but if the Welsh Government or others want to create a more mixed housing market with more private tenants then there needs to be further regulation of the industry.
Profiteering and excessive numbers of private tenancies in some areas can become a problem if unmanaged. It’s also unclear what impact the likes of short-stay private rentals (largely aimed at tourists) via the likes of Air Bnb will have on the availability of secure long-term rental properties.
