Title Image: Elliot Brown via Flickr under Creative Commons Licence BY-SA-2.0
"The Perennials" (particularly NHS Waiting Times)
There are several chronic issues in devolved (or half-devolved) policy areas that successive Welsh governments have struggled to address.
NHS waiting times are perhaps the one that impacts the greatest number of people and is the easiest to understand. Other “perennial” honourable mentions include:
- Delayed ambulance transfers & “corridor care”.
- Access to NHS dentistry.
- Child and in-work poverty.
- Economic growth (output-per-person compared to the rest of the UK).
- Underemployment/”The Brain Drain”.
- Welsh students’ performance in international PISA tests.
- Demographic ageing of rural Wales.
- Affordable and social housing.
- Access to Welsh-medium education.
Tackling NHS waiting times was given top priority by Eluned Morgan when she took over as First Minister. While there have been improvements in some waiting times over the last year, they continue to remain stubbornly high and far above the level they were before the pandemic.
It’s not just an issue in Wales, but the situation in Wales was considerably worse than in England and Scotland, even before the pandemic.
It can’t be entirely down to money either. Health & social care takes up around half of all devolved spending. There’s only so much money you can throw at a problem until it becomes less about money and more about “trying to do the wrong things better”.
School Behaviour
It’s a common trope to consider younger generations to be “the worst there’s ever been”, and it rarely has any basis in fact.
Despite that, one of the more disturbing trends over the last term is high-profile reports of violence and poor behaviour in schools (particularly secondary). In some cases, teachers have either threatened or taken strike action; in others, teachers have been assaulted (or worse in the case of Ammanford).
New models to address poor behaviour have been trialled, but it may be reaching the point where it goes beyond issuing new guidance to changing the law. That’s not only to deal with discipline, but the failure by individual schools and governing bodies to get to grips with related issues such as bullying (online and offline), neurodiversity (which falls short of additional learning needs) and poor attendance.
You would expect this to be towards the top of the in-tray of any incoming education minister. It could also be a policy area where the views of the parties vary – whether it’s on how schools deal with discipline, or specific issues such as mobile phone and social media bans.
They could either take the more compassionate view that access to counselling and children’s mental health services needs to improve, with teachers properly trained to de-escalate.
The alternative is the more small-c conservative/traditionalist view on school discipline. This might include zero tolerance and strict enforcement of rules, greater use of after-school and weekend detentions, and criminal prosecution of parents/guardians.
The Future of 20 mph
The introduction of a default 20 mph speed limit in built-up areas is one of the most controversial policies of the Sixth Senedd.
Labour was given a mandate to do so at the 2021 election. While the situation has calmed down a bit, the arguments around it haven’t stopped – mainly because of serious issues with how the policy was introduced. It’s also served as a convenient wedge issue to bring into question devolution itself.
The future of the policy likely depends on who wins the election – though we should expect further changes regardless.
The local government-led reviews undertaken during 2025 have seen a small number of local roads revert to their old speed limits. Though you get the impression it’s not going to be enough, and it’s going to be something that Reform and the Conservatives, in particular, will capitalise on.
Flooding & Water Management
Even if some of the effects of climate change are with us here and now, the measures needed to address the root causes are too abstract or too long-term for most of us to consider.
That’s not to place any blame on anyone for thinking like that. Flooding has always happened. Try to convince someone that upland tree planting, flying & driving less, and peat bog restoration are somehow linked to why they’re standing in a foot of water in their kitchen.
The dilemma is whether priority should be given to dealing with the inevitable – such as through flood engineering – over taking action to prevent regular and severe flooding (and droughts) from happening in the first place (all those “net zero” measures by 2050 that many people either don’t want to think about or actively oppose).
Added to that is the broader issue of water management. While Dwr Cymru likes to wrap itself in its cuddly “not for profit” blanket, they continue to disgrace itself by its apparent inaction on sewage overspills whilst continuing to charge some of the highest water bills in EnglandandWales.
There are early plans for a new water regulator for Wales (replacing Ofwat, which has proven itself useless), but the details will be left to the incoming Welsh Government.
Contaminated Land
The Sixth Senedd focused attention on coal tips. Similarly, industrial waste dumps and contaminated land will likely feature heavily in the Seventh Senedd – particularly those sites contaminated with so-called “forever chemicals”.
Some sites – such as the former Brofiscin quarry on the outskirts of Llantrisant – are well known. Others may only become a serious problem during run-offs following heavy rain, or if/when contaminated land is eyed up for development or further resource extraction.
With celebrity involvement set to bring this issue to people’s wider attention, expect a debate on whether there needs to be a similar set of measures put in place as those set to be introduced for coal tips (a central monitoring authority, with contaminated sites graded based on their risk to the environment and public health).
Keir Starmer's Premiership
Keir Starmer and his current administration don’t run the NHS in Wales. They don’t run our schools or colleges. They don’t provide childcare. They don’t provide funding for farms. They don’t run most of the rail services (though they do run most of the track). They don’t decide which road projects get built. They don’t set the budget for Welsh local councils.
Those are the kind of issues that this election should be about; but we’re not going to get that. This election will be treated as a referendum on Keir Starmer’s record as Prime Minister because that’s how this is going to be framed by the UK press. You don’t matter.
There’s little Labour can do about it. And all parties – Plaid and Tories included – have pushed this “send a message to Westminster” line in the past at Senedd (or even council) elections.
I can’t think of many examples of a Prime Minister with such a thumping majority going from being “the adult in the room” – ending 13 years of largely incompetent Conservative rule – to one of the most unpopular serving prime ministers we’ve ever had. The question is, “Why?”
Parking more recent crises (Mandelson/Epstein files and Iran) for a moment, Starmer doesn’t appear to believe in or stand for anything. We haven’t seen any meaningful change since 2024. His government has taken as high-handed an approach to devolution as the likes of Boris Johnson. His government has “made the tough decisions” (which Blairites love), pissed off everyone in the process, then u-turned. All in record time.
Immigration (Nation of Sanctuary Programme)
It’s not devolved, but Reform are going to make sure it features in the campaign. Part of that is down to the Welsh Government chasing “grand gestures” and presenting Reform (and probably the Tories too) with an open goal.
The Nation of Sanctuary scheme featured heavily in Reform’s campaign at the 2025 Caerphilly by-election.
It wasn’t enough to give them the win, but it did cut through. Many people who aren’t keen on immigrants had their biases confirmed without asking too many questions.
It wasn’t until the beneficiaries of the scheme defended it, namely Ukrainian refugees, that it backfired. That pushback feels temporary, as people have short memories.
The Welsh Government doesn’t have a say in who can be settled here by the UK Home Office. All the scheme does is provide a support package to help refugees – the majority of whom have fled the Ukraine War – integrate whilst they’re living here.
Instead of calling it something dull and technical (as in Scotland), the Welsh Government opted for the saintly-sounding “Nation of Sanctuary”. To anyone who hasn’t looked into it in any meaningful way, it sounds like an open-door refugee policy when it isn’t.
You can add it to other things to which the Welsh Government are believed to have overreached; for example, the Ugandan tree planting scheme, or overseas offices.
It ties to the devosceptic view that the Welsh Government and Senedd are wasting time and money to pat themselves on the back at our expense, whilst failing to get to grip with bread and butter issues that matter most to people (those things listed at the top of this piece).
Council Tax Reform
After housing costs, council tax is likely to be towards the top of most household outgoings.
Council tax reform was promised for this Senedd term, but has been pushed back. As things stand, the reform will consist of a revaluation exercise in 2028, with more regular revaluations afterwards. This might take the edge off some household bills, but could mean frequent changes to a property’s council tax band.
The wider issue is whether an incoming Welsh Government decides to go further (from 2028 onwards) and consider replacing council tax with a new tax entirely. That could be a property value tax or a land value tax (the latter long being favoured by Mark Drakeford, amongst others).
There would be an opportunity to look again at business rates, too.
University Finances (& Long-Term Viability)
Is the university bubble about to pop?
One recurring story during the Sixth Senedd has been redundancies at Welsh universities. This is driven by a mix of factors, including falling university student numbers, questionable investments and “empire building” by the universities themselves, as well as uncertain income from tuition fees and overseas students.
Wales isn’t alone in this, as universities are struggling across the UK. But it’s more likely to be keenly felt here if, hypothetically, a university went bust.
Universities play an important economic role, both in terms of supporting the local economies in university-dominated towns like Aberystwyth and Bangor, and in the educational and cultural/soft power value.
It’s a cliché, but we are reaching a crossroads in the coming term because these redundancies could accelerate if the short-term financial health of universities doesn’t improve.
Additionally, there are other issues tied to this, such as the value of a university education more generally and student finance (particularly funding for students studying outside Wales).
There’s also the bigger question as to whether universities should be “franchises” that compete with each other like football teams (the Russell Group being the equivalent of the English Premier League), or should focus more on being a collegiate system of higher learning. Is the University of Wales going to make a comeback in the 2030s?
Energy Infrastructure (Pylons)
Wales only has limited powers in this area, tied in part to the wider debate about Welsh control over Welsh natural resources, including the devolution of the Crown Estate in line with Scotland.
One of the main energy-related issues that’s likely to be high up the in-tray of the next Welsh government will be pylons. The National Grid is to be upgraded as part of the wider move towards renewables, which means more high-voltage power lines crossing rural Wales, linked (mainly) to wind and solar farms.
The current debate is shaping around whether these lines should be carried on traditional metal or wooden pylons (cheaper, but ugly; easier to inspect and repair, less damage resistant), or be buried (more expensive, less intrusive, more weather resilient).
This does pose problems for Plaid Cymru (who’ve been the most vocal in support of burying power lines) and the Greens in particular. Both have a tendency towards NIMBYism, but both also have to marry that with their (on paper) strong support for renewables.
Reform and the Conservatives could use their opposition to renewables to their advantage as well, while Labour could accuse them all of not being serious about renewable energy.
The Cost of Democracy
I’ve previously touched on why I’m not happy with the latest reforms to the Senedd: too many MSs (expansion should’ve been to 75-80); too much party control over candidates; using the wrong voting system (should’ve been STV).
Before the Fifth Senedd (2016-2021), we were told increases in pay and expenses for MSs would lead to higher-quality candidates.
What we got was 7 UKIP members who were largely useless (some of whom could make a comeback with Reform). Additionally, time-servers on the backbenches of the big parties – who should’ve been put out to pasture – remain or remained in place. They block fresh blood and fresh voices because they can’t afford to stand down when the T&Cs are so good.
Similarly, before the latest reforms we were told we needed more MSs to improve scrutiny and better spread the workload. To an extent, I’d agree. My worry now is that we’re going to have a Senedd flooded with inexperienced members (within all parties) – a sizable chunk of whom have never held elected office before and have little idea as to what they’ve signed up for.
Also, instead of 7 “disruptors” and “headbangers”, we’re potentially going to have a few dozen, rendering the expansion null and void from the “it’ll improve scrutiny” standpoint.
It’s going to be more important than ever to compare MS performances to each other and keep tabs on what issues matter to them, how well they contribute to the Senedd and how much they’re costing us; not just quoting them or having a friendly chat on a podcast.
So here’s a shameless plug for the all-new Senedd Home. Coming in September.
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Senedd 2026
