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If Wales is to become independent one day, then it makes sense to learn from countries similar to ourselves.
What makes a country "similar to Wales"?
- It should be bilingual or multilingual (having at least two official languages).
- Ideally, it would have a post-industrial economy: the economy is based on services rather than heavy industries like coal mining, steel etc. or manufacturing.
- The country should identify as being part of “The West” (European-Christian, now secular, culture).
- It would have historically been part of an empire.
- It should have a parliamentary political system: there’s a Prime Minister or First Minister who’s the leader of the largest party in parliament. There’s no separate president with executive/decision-making powers.
- Centre-left political parties have historically performed well or formed the majority of governments.
- Most of the country is rural, but the majority of people live in towns and cities (an equivalent of the M4 and A55 corridors).
- There should be no modern history of political violence; it’s “safe”.
- There should be a mountainous terrain which makes transport difficult.
- The country would be be categorised as “small” (population of under 10 million people).
- Likewise, it should have much larger neighbours on its borders (ideally with a fair amount of cross-border commuting).
- It should have been part of a political union where one member country was much bigger than the others.
- The country should have a temperate maritime climate: it rains a lot and it’s neither too hot nor too cold.
Based on those criteria, my shortlist of Wales’ “twin countries” (you might have your own ideas) would include the following.
Ireland
Why Ireland is Wales' twin
Why it isn't
Why Ireland is Wales' twin
- Both Irish and English have official status. Although Irish is a Celtic language, it’s very different from Welsh.
- Is firmly a part of “The West” with an active diaspora.
- Was part of the British Empire until the 1920s.
- Has a parliamentary political system, with two chambers (Dáil Éireann and Seanad Éireann). The President of Ireland is a largely ceremonial position.
- The majority of the Irish population live in and around Dublin and the other major cities like Cork, Sligo, Galway, Waterford and Limerick; the remainder of the country is fairly rural.
- While there’s a modern history of political violence, most of this has happened in Northern Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is generally considered to be “safe”.
- The Irish population is between 5-6 million (even if the diaspora is much larger).
- You can count the UK as a whole as being the “large neighbour”.
- Ireland was part of the UK until 1922.
- Has a climate that’s pretty much identical to Wales.
Why it isn't
- Ireland doesn’t have the same historic association with heavy industry as Wales and its service sector is much more developed than ours.
- Irish politics has traditionally been dominated by two centre-right/conservative parties: Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. The two main left-wing parties (Sinn Fein and Labour) have enjoyed limited electoral success.
- Ireland is “flatter” than Wales – though counties Kerry and Wicklow have a similar topography to Wales.
Finland
Why Finland is Wales' twin
Why it isn't
Why Finland is Wales' twin
- Has two official languages (Finnish and Swedish) plus several minority languages.
- Finland has long been an important manufacturer and retains a lot of steel and chemical-making ability, as well as having a developed service sector.
- Definitely a part of “The West”.
- Was previously part of both the Swedish and Russian empires.
- Has a parliamentary system, but the President has some executive powers – particularly over foreign policy (Bonus: has a single chamber like the Senedd).
- The majority of the population is concentrated along the southern coast.
- No modern history of political violence; despite the threat from Russia, Finland is very safe.
- The population is similar to Ireland (under 6 million).
- Is sandwiched between two much larger neighbours (Sweden and Russia).
- Finland spent most of its existence under Swedish rule and was considered a semi-autonomous “Duchy” of the Russian Empire.
Why it isn't
- Political power has historically been split fairly evenly between the centre-left and centre-right; no single party has been “dominant” in the same way as Labour in Wales.
- Lots of forests and lakes, but not very mountainous.
- Apart from the coastal areas, Finland has a sub-arctic climate.
Denmark
Why Denmark is Wales' twin
Why it isn't
Why Denmark is Wales' twin
- Is part of “The West”.
- Has been both part of an empire (which briefly included England) and is still (to an extent) a colonial power in Greenland and the Faroe Islands.
- Has a parliamentary system and a constitutional monarchy (Bonus: has a single chamber like the Senedd).
- While there’s an active multi-party system, the centre-left Social Democrats have formed more governments than any other party since the 1920s.
- Copenhagen is a significant population centre, but most people live in smaller villages, towns and cities.
- No modern history of political violence.
- The population is under 6 million.
- Counts Germany and Sweden as immediate neighbours.
- Has a temperate maritime climate which is almost identical to Wales.
Why it isn't
- Denmark itself isn’t bilingual, although its self-governing territories of the Faroe Islands and Greenland are.
- Denmark hasn’t had much of an industrial economy – especially when compared to Wales – though it does have a large manufacturing base.
- Denmark is flat and has a pretty extensive transport network so it’s never faced the same issues as Wales.
- Has been part of political unions in the past (Kalmar Union, Denmark-Norway, Denmark-Iceland) but has usually been a larger partner.
Switzerland
Why Switzerland is Wales' twin
Why it isn't
Why Switzerland is Wales' twin
- Has not two, but four, official languages (German, French, Italian and Romansch).
- Most of the Swiss economy is based on services, but they retain a very large manufacturing base.
- Is part of “The West”.
- Was a part of the Holy Roman Empire.
- No real history of political violence and has a tradition of direct democracy.
- To say Switzerland is mountainous is an understatement – far more so than Wales.
- Has a population of around 9 million, so just about counts as a “small country”.
- All of Switzerland’s neighbours (with the exception of Liechtenstein) are much larger.
Why it isn't
- Switzerland doesn’t have a parliamentary system in the way we know it. It also has a committee instead of a presidency/executive/government.
- Swiss politics has generally been dominated by conservative and centrist parties.
- The population is more spread out than in Wales; most people live in small to moderate-sized villages.
- The modern Swiss state has never been part of a political union and probably counts as a political union in its own right.
- Has a continental climate: warmer summers, colder winters than Wales.
New Zealand
Why New Zealand is Wales' twin
Why it isn't
Why New Zealand is Wales' twin
- Has three official languages (English, Maori, NZ sign language).
- Is part of “The West” despite its location.
- Was part of the British Empire; retains the UK monarch as head of state as a Commonwealth Realm.
- Has a parliamentary political system (Bonus: has a single chamber like the Senedd).
- The majority of people live in large towns and cities but the bulk of the country is rural, with most people living in North Island.
- No modern history of political violence, but there are tensions under the surface.
- Definitely mountainous.
- Population of under 6 million.
- Has a temperate maritime climate.
- Bonus: One of the only other countries in the world where rugby union is considered to be a national sport.
Why it isn't
- New Zealand retains a very large mining sector and its economy is perhaps a bit more diversified than Wales’.
- New Zealand’s conservative party (National Party) has had more electoral success than their Labour party.
- Only has one large neighbour (Australia) and it’s the best part of 2000km away. New Zealand is the main power in Polynesia (along with Australia) and has self-governing associated territories (i.e. Cook Islands, Niue).
- There were proposals for New Zealand to become an Australian state at the turn of the 20th Century. Other than that, it’s never been part of a political union with another country (aside from the British Empire).
- Bonus: Is the only country on this list that faces major natural disasters: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical cyclones.
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